Trump is angry over the failure of the trade war and is looking for scapegoats. It seems he has found two.
Where will America's "Khrushchev" lead with his "reform impulse"?
Author: Dmitriy Rodionov
Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump.
Commentators:
Vladimir Mozhgov, Vsevolod Shemov, Dmitriy Yerov
According to the German Bild newspaper, U.S. President Donald Trump, after imposing tariffs on some countries, expressed disappointment with the responsible advisors.
According to the report, the president was dissatisfied with the results of the tariff increases, so he began to distance himself from some confidants, particularly trade advisors Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Previously, Politico also reported on the decline in status of Ross and Navarro within the White House hierarchy.
According to Bild's information, Treasury Secretary Scott Betts has come to the forefront and is considered a "voice of reason" in the presidential administration. He is expected to adopt a more pragmatic policy and has been appointed as the chief negotiator for tariff talks with 75 countries.
It should be noted that Navarro and Ross were actually the main initiators and promoters of the trade war. With their estrangement from Trump, will protectionist policies begin to retreat, or are anti-Trump media mistaking wishes for reality?
"Such media as Bild are, of course, unreliable; these tabloids are enemies of Trump, obvious liberals who are short-sighted, viewing Trump as a madman, an actor, someone who doesn't know what he wants, acting like an elephant in a china shop." American political scientist Vladimir Mozhgov firmly believes.
"They always describe office intrigues, while in fact, these tariff actions initiated by Trump are carefully considered ideas he has harbored for three or four decades. This is his ideology, the reason he came into power, and it's not just him. Understand, the entire conservative America thinks this way too.
These people came to America to build a great nation based on its own rules. It was this tariff protectionist paternalistic policy in the late 19th century that made America great.
Trump says: Let us rid ourselves of these crazy liberals, completely break globalism, return to normal policies that once brought prosperity and greatness, return to the policies of the late 19th century."
This is Trump's great ideology, which ignited the enthusiasm of conservatives and Republicans, who ultimately followed him.
This is a profound idea of the American people, the great American dream, which was destroyed before World War II. At that time, the slogan "America First" was very loud, and now Trump has re-embraced it.
A revival is coming. This is a reaction to globalization, and Trump is trying to destroy globalism with these crazy tariffs, attempting to disrupt the global economy. And he certainly won't back down.
He will continue to do so. Now, liberal media hysterically say he seems to be retreating, but this fits Trump's strategy: full pressure first, intimidate opponents, then take a step back, and when the opponent is intimidated and loses their mind, start cooperating with him. It's convenient to cooperate with such an opponent.
This is the essence behind everything, and it is far from what liberal media like Politico have been saying about personnel changes. These media don't understand anything, and they promote their own policies, which Trump opposes.
So, saying there will be personnel changes due to failure at this stage is incorrect and premature. Clearly, for example, Musk dislikes how Trump's executive orders disrupted the technology supply chain, and Tesla's production in certain related countries might triple due to these tariffs. Or similarly, Apple phones are affected.
But Trump will definitely handle all this well; he has already announced that high-tech products are not subject to sanctions. Understand, this is "full force," and afterward, Trump will speak individually with each "client," and no disaster will occur. Everything will return to normal, and it's still too early to say now. We need to wait one or two months, maybe two to three months. Then things will become clear. This is a policy aimed at years, even decades.
"Trump makes impulsive, quick, and poorly considered decisions, then retreats under pressure from the situation and those around him. This time it's a seesaw situation." Vsevolod Shemov, advisor to the chairman of the Baltic Studies Association of Russia, believes.
"It seems they underestimated the degree of U.S. dependence on the countries subject to the tariffs and feared negative socio-economic consequences, so they 'halted' the tariff measures."
"SP": So what did they originally expect? Immediate victory? How can success be defined?"
"Expecting high tariffs to make imported goods lose competitiveness in the U.S. market and thus stimulate domestic producers. In theory, yes, but this is not an overnight process. Overall, there is nothing to replace imports 'right now.'
A gradual plan for import substitution and economic reform is needed, not "sudden" tariff hikes. And it seems Trump doesn't have such a plan.
"SP": Navarro is considered one of the "godfathers" of the trade war ideology. If something goes wrong, he would be the easiest scapegoat, right?"
"Of course, after taking drastic and ill-considered measures, there is always a need for a scapegoat. Trump won't attribute all responsibility to himself."
"SP": Who do you think Trump might distance himself from next? Whose fault does he think the failure is?"
"I think mainly technical personnel, the executors. Of course, if things don't develop to the point of a major split within the government."
"SP": How important do you think this issue is for Trump and his team? Can it reflect the correctness of the overall policy direction?"
"This is important because protectionism is the foundation of Trump's agenda. 'Making America Great Again' means reviving American industry and breaking free from dependence on China, the EU, and other 'partners.' But these things cannot be resolved by cowboy-style tariff hikes."
"SP": Will Trump's team face serious splits due to initial failures? Musk has already expressed dissatisfaction. Surely the tariff measures harm the interests of influential merchants... What happens next?"
"If similar 'mistakes' continue, a split is inevitable. Trump's leadership style is quite like Khrushchev's."
Energetic, with reform impulses, but without plans, decisions made instinctively and spontaneously. With this leadership style, Trump could quickly alienate those around him, making them see him as a troublemaker, and then a palace coup wouldn't be far off...
"To a large extent, the Trump team's implementation of unprecedented tariff measures was quite risky from the beginning." Dmitry Yerov, associate professor at the Department of Political Science of the Russian Government Financial University, believes.
"Yes, the risks are evident, but it seems they weren't fully considered. The quick reconsideration of conditions for individual countries or product categories indirectly proves that the decision to increase tariffs had many ill-considered aspects (for example, constantly trying to put countries in a worse position, or excluding electronic products from the tariff range). This raises the question of who should be held accountable for the mistakes...
At the same time, understand that Trump may find someone within his own team to take responsibility, but in public perception, tariffs and trade wars will be directly linked to him personally, causing his approval rating to drop significantly, especially if the negative effects persist. For now, despite various claims, negative effects still dominate.
It's impossible for the U.S. to announce its decision and for everyone to accept and agree with it like waving a magic wand – times have changed... America is different now. The best way to escape the current predicament seems to be seeking compromise. Although it's already clear that adjustments due to mistakes may lead to a split in the Trump team, this won't happen overnight."
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493414141613457959/
Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views. Feel free to express your attitude by clicking the "Like/Dislike" buttons below.