【By Observer Net, Wang Yi】According to previous reports by Xinhua News Agency, shortly after the Trump administration took office in the United States, it closely watched global mineral resources, and the term "rare earth" was frequently mentioned by President Trump in many occasions. Now, the United States has set its sights on Myanmar.
Four sources said that the Trump administration is currently discussing several proposals that could significantly change its long-term policy toward Myanmar internally. The core purpose of the change is to weaken China's dominant position in the global rare earth industry, intercepting Myanmar's rich heavy rare earth resources from the Chinese supply chain and turning them into strategic assets for the United States.
However, these proposals are still in the internal evaluation and discussion stage and have not yet been formalized into policies. Experts pointed out that if Trump really considers transporting rare earths from Myanmar under China's nose, they would be "completely crazy."
According to the sources, the proposals discussed by the Trump administration include two competing approaches: one is to negotiate with the Myanmar military government to facilitate a peace agreement between it and the Kachin Independence Army; the other is to bypass the military government and directly cooperate with the Kachin Independence Army. These proposals were put forward by an American business lobbyist and a former advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi, and related discussions also involved representatives of the Kachin Independence Army and some international experts.
The sources also said that the proposers hope the U.S. government will ease the 40% tariff imposed on Myanmar, gradually lift sanctions against the military government and its allies, cooperate with India to process these rare earths, and appoint a special envoy to carry out these tasks.
It is known that rare earths are called "industrial vitamins," which refer to a group of 17 metal elements, including lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, etc., and have extremely rich magnetic, optical, electrical, and thermal properties. Many advanced technologies, such as electric vehicle batteries, semiconductor manufacturing, and aircraft stealth coatings, strongly depend on the special properties of rare earth materials.
More than 90% of the world's rare earth processing capacity is in China's hands, while the United States has limited rare earth production and mainly relies on imports, making ensuring its supply a key focus of the Trump administration's strategic competition with China.
In recent years, Myanmar's rare earth production has surged, rising from 200 tons in 2014 to 31,000 tons in 2020, ranking among the top three globally. China has also imported large amounts of rare earths from Myanmar in recent years. According to a Guotai Junan research report, China's total rare earth imports in 2024 amounted to about 77,300 tons, of which 44,000 tons came from Myanmar, accounting for 57%.
In recent years, China's import of rare earths from Myanmar has increased.
This has made the United States eye Myanmar's rare earths as a "delicacy." A person close to the U.S. Vice President's office said that on the 17th, a meeting was held in Vance's office discussing some suggestions proposed by lobbyists. Adam Castillo, the former head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar and now running an security company in Myanmar, and Vance's Asian affairs and trade adviser attended, but Vance himself was not present.
Castillo confirmed the news, saying he advised U.S. officials to emulate China by first mediating a bilateral autonomy agreement between the military government and the Kachin Independence Army, with the United States acting as a peacemaker. To lobby the Trump administration, Castillo also said that the Myanmar side has shown a positive attitude towards exporting rare earths to the United States and is eager to establish a cooperative relationship with the United States.
Castillo also proposed that the United States should collaborate with the Quad (U.S.-Japan-India-Australia) to refine and process Myanmar's heavy rare earths for final export to the United States, especially with India.
The Indian Ministry of Mines did not respond to the inquiry. An unnamed Indian government official said he was unaware whether the U.S. had already communicated with India on this matter, but pointed out that the construction of rare earth processing facilities would take years and the progress would be very difficult.
Sean Turnell, a former economic advisor to Aung San Suu Kyi and an Australian economist, at the meeting on the 17th again used China's influence to try to persuade the Trump administration, claiming that cooperation with the Kachin Independence Army could not only gain rare earths but also keep them "away from China."
A source revealed that over the past few months, U.S. officials have contacted the Kachin Independence Army through intermediaries multiple times, conducting multiple rounds of discussions on the issue of rare earths.
On the other hand, if the Trump administration decides to engage with the Myanmar military government to obtain rare earths, it will mark a significant shift in the U.S. policy toward Myanmar. After the military overthrew the elected civilian government in Myanmar in 2021, the United States has always avoided direct contact with the military government and imposed sanctions on those closely associated with it.
Last week, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on several allies of the Myanmar military government, sparking speculation about a policy shift. However, U.S. officials stated that this does not represent a change in the overall policy stance.
The White House declined to comment on the information, but sources said that since Trump took office again in January this year, the White House has begun to re-examine its policy toward Myanmar and assess whether it should conduct direct trade negotiations with the Myanmar military government.
The discussion was described by the sources as "exploratory," still in the early stages, and may not necessarily mean a strategic shift. They added that considering the Trump administration's cautious approach to intervening in foreign conflicts and Myanmar's complex crisis, the meeting held in Vance's office may not be enough to make Trump completely change his strategy.
"Officials believe that the meeting was more of a courtesy visit to American business representatives in Myanmar, and also aimed at supporting President Trump's efforts to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Myanmar of $579 million," said a senior government official when asked about the meeting on the 17th.
Currently, the Trump administration has not made a final decision, but experts point out that such ideas face many challenges.
Since the coup, the civil war in Myanmar has continued, and the military government and its allies have lost control in border areas, with the Kachin Independence Army controlling a large number of rare earth mines in the north. A rare earth industry expert said that about three months ago, the U.S. had contacted the Kachin Independence Army to conduct a preliminary survey of local rare earth conditions. However, the expert believes that any new large-scale rare earth supply chain may be unfeasible because the feasibility of transporting ore from the Kachin region to India for export is extremely low.
Bertil Lintner, a Myanmar expert, also analyzed that considering the rugged terrain and poor infrastructure in Kachin, the U.S. wanting to transport rare earths from the area under China's nose is "completely crazy."
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