U.S. Media: Amid the escalating Middle East conflict, China's crude oil imports have significantly declined, helping to curb further rises in global oil prices. Since the outbreak of the conflict, global crude supply has decreased by approximately 14%, yet the market fears of oil prices surging to $200 per barrel have not materialized.
Data shows that China reduced its daily crude oil imports from around 11.7 million barrels in February to less than 9 million barrels by late May—accounting for about 74% of the global decline—and has thus become a key force in buffering the impact on oil prices. JPMorgan Chase notes that this adjustment has helped maintain relative market stability even as the conflict entered its 100th day.
However, Société Générale believes that with global inventories declining and strategic reserves needing replenishment, oil prices will likely need to rise further to restore supply-demand balance. Their analysis indicates that the 14% drop in supply has already driven oil prices up by about 30%, while historically, a 7% supply shock in 1973 led to a 134% spike in oil prices.
Currently, Brent crude has risen to about $97.67 per barrel, while WTI crude stands at approximately $94.93 per barrel. Analysts remain divided: some institutions believe prices could fall back to around $70 if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal passage, while others expect Brent crude to remain around $100 or higher for an extended period into 2026 should supply constraints persist.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867446250911755/
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