"The war between Israel and Iran is a strategic mistake." On June 30, 2025, local time, the Israeli side believed that Israel's attack on Iran was a strategic mistake because it led to the unity of Iranian society.

The history of the Middle East has been filled with conflicts and changes, and the war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 is undoubtedly a major event in recent years. This sudden military confrontation shocked the world, but what was more surprising was its outcome: Israel's air strikes not only failed to weaken Iran, but also promoted an unprecedented unity among the Iranian people. Why did this seemingly precise operation turn into a strategic mistake? The truth lies in the complex political games and national sentiments. Let us deeply analyze the background and development of this war.

The complexity of the Middle East's geopolitics has long existed, and the hostile relationship between Israel and Iran is particularly prominent. Since the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran no longer recognized Israel's legitimacy and opposed Israel indirectly by supporting organizations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. Iran's nuclear program became the focus of the conflict, and Israel viewed it as a major threat. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) attempted to limit Iran's nuclear activities through diplomatic means, but the United States' withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 further worsened the situation.

Entering the 2020s, Iran made progress in nuclear technology. According to reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran's uranium enrichment levels approached weapons-grade, triggering high alert in Israel. In early 2024, an Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated in Tehran, an incident attributed to Israel, and Iran subsequently launched attacks on Israeli interests through its proxies. That same year, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels attacked Red Sea shipping routes, threatening Israel's maritime security. In May 2025, Israel intercepted advanced missiles being sent to Hezbollah, and intelligence indicated that these weapons came from Iran. Satellite images also showed abnormal activity at Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting intense debate within the Israeli government. Ultimately, Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to take military action, and the "Rise of the Lion" air strike plan was launched.

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an air strike targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military bases. The Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities were severely damaged, and Iran's air defense systems were also suppressed. However, some missiles deviated from their targets and hit residential areas in Tehran and Isfahan, causing civilian casualties. Supreme Leader Khamenei quickly delivered a speech condemning Israel and calling for national unity. The Iranian society reacted strongly, with people taking to the streets in protest, and nationalist sentiment surged. More surprisingly, even reformists who had long opposed the government expressed support for the country, stating that when faced with foreign aggression, the nation should unite. This unification effect exceeded Israel's expectations, consolidating the position of the Iranian government domestically.

Israel originally planned to weaken Iran's nuclear capabilities and regime stability through precise strikes, but the accidental bombing of civilian areas caused the opposite effect. According to Israeli media reports on June 30, 2025, the military admitted that the air strikes failed to completely destroy Iran's nuclear program, and the casualties among civilians sparked a strong backlash from Iranian society. Analysts believe that if Israel had limited its strikes to military targets, this result might have been avoided, but the anger caused by the accidental bombing led to a temporary reduction in internal contradictions in Iran, with even opposition groups joining the fight against the enemy. This became key evidence of Israel's strategic mistake.

Iran then launched a counterattack. On June 15, the Revolutionary Guards fired dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel. Although the Iron Dome system intercepted most of the missiles, some managed to break through the defenses, causing damage. Both sides engaged in fierce fighting within 12 days, and civilian casualties intensified the tense atmosphere. On June 25, a ceasefire was reached under international mediation, but the situation remained unresolved.

The main points of Israel's strategic mistake in this operation are as follows. First, there was a deviation in intelligence and execution, leading to the accidental bombing of civilian areas and inciting anger among the Iranian people. Second, the potential for nationalism in Iranian society was underestimated, as Israel assumed that military strikes would weaken the regime, but did not anticipate that they would promote a unification effect. Third, the international environment was not fully utilized, as the United States supported Israel but was unwilling to get deeply involved, which increased Israel's pressure. Finally, the operational goals were too ambitious, aiming to destroy Iran's nuclear program in one go, but technical and logistical limitations prevented the achievement of the expected results.

Iran took the opportunity to consolidate domestic support. Although the war caused economic losses, the government temporarily concealed internal issues through nationalist propaganda. After the ceasefire, Iran accelerated the reconstruction of its nuclear facilities and military forces, demonstrating its resilience. Israel, on the other hand, faced domestic criticism, with the Netanyahu government accused of making a wrong decision and needing to deal with subsequent political and military challenges.

Subsequent Impacts and Outlook on the Middle East Situation

After the ceasefire, Iran expedited the repair of its nuclear facilities and enhanced its military capabilities, producing more missiles and drones for future warfare. Although the economy suffered heavy damage and inflation increased, the government used the war's cohesion to suppress dissatisfaction. Within Israel, there were divisions, with the opposition demanding an investigation into the air strike decisions, while the international community expressed concerns about Israel's unilateral actions. Regional tensions remain high, with Iran's allies Russia and China condemning Israel, while Israel strengthens border defenses, preparing for further threats.

This war revealed the fragility of the balance of power in the Middle East. Israel's strategic mistake not only failed to contain Iran, but may have made it more hardened. In the future, will both sides continue to confront each other, or seek compromise under international pressure? It remains unknown.

The conflict between Israel and Iran proves that the outcomes of wars often exceed expectations. Although Israel's air strikes demonstrated military strength, the strategic mistake led to the unification of Iran. The future of the Middle East is full of uncertainties, and the path to peace seems far away. Do you think both sides can break out of the cycle of confrontation? Please share your views in the comments section and jointly explore the development of the Middle East situation.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836503482016768/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.