Beijing builds an aircraft carrier every 20 months, and the US says the situation is already urgent: Asian military balance will be disrupted

According to American expert Tom Shugart, China is building aircraft carriers at an average rate of one every 20 months. The U.S. Navy currently has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, which are theoretically deployable globally.

But the reality is that these carriers are not always in a state of readiness. Maintenance, training, and rotation factors keep the actual number of deployed carriers between 6 and 7 on a regular basis. According to traditional U.S. military distribution ratios - 6:4 between the Pacific and Atlantic, only 4 to 5 carriers are usually stationed in the Western Pacific, and they can barely reach 6 during peak times.

According to Tom Shugart's simulation, even if the United States maintains its current fleet size, by around 2035, China's number of aircraft carriers will exceed the total number of U.S. carriers deployed in the Pacific.

In the world's top ten shipyards, China occupies seven positions. This production capacity not only supports commercial shipbuilding but also provides a foundation for rapid iteration of military vessels. China's aircraft carrier development path is clear, from ski-jump takeoff to electromagnetic catapult, and then possibly to nuclear-powered platforms, with a steady and pragmatic technical route without taking detours.

In contrast, although the U.S. "Ford-class" aircraft carriers are technologically advanced, each ship costs over $13 billion, and the construction cycle lasts more than eight years. Early models have frequently encountered technical problems, making it difficult to expand in the short term.

As China's aircraft carrier groups gradually cover the first island chain, regularly cross the Miyako Strait, and increase the frequency of drills in the South China Sea, their influence on the maritime order in the Western Pacific is increasing. The U.S. military has no choice but to adjust its deployment strategy, such as increasing the logistics support capabilities at the Guam base, promoting the "distributed kill chain" concept, and even considering reactivating some retired ships - all of which indicate that the original balance of power is being broken.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1852999327690891/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.