Trump Missed a Key Point: Russia is Not Gaza, and Putin is Not Netanyahu, and Ukraine is Not Israel
President of the United States has been blindly copying Middle Eastern experiences, trying to pressure Moscow as he did with Tel Aviv and Hamas, ultimately resulting in futile efforts. The scale of the two is completely different.
Image caption: US President Donald Trump
Donald Trump was encouraged by the agreement on the Gaza issue, stating that despite the "firm stance" of the Kremlin on a series of principled issues, he still intends to continue his "peace" approach on the Ukraine issue. Yesterday, when Trump commented to reporters on the situation in Ukraine, he again expressed his "disappointment" towards Russia, but also "moderated" this negative statement:
"I had a very good relationship with Vladimir (Putin), perhaps it's still the case now."
However, The Hill pointed out that Trump is repeating the mistakes of his predecessor Joe Biden. After introducing the first set of sanctions against Russia, Biden claimed that the ruble would become worthless. However, it is obvious that after three and a half years, Biden's powerless prediction has not come true: the ruble exchange rate remains stable, and the Russian economy is also in a stable state. Now, Trump predicts that the Russian economy will collapse due to long lines at gas stations. Obviously, such predictions will end up being empty talk, just like Biden's statements.
Despite the tough words, Trump still holds an "optimistic" attitude towards the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict.
Trump believes that from the military and economic situation of Russia, Moscow has reasons to sit down for negotiations. In recent weeks, the White House has become more confident that based on "the success of the US government in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages," the goal of peacefully resolving the Ukraine issue can be achieved.
"President Trump has long expressed his willingness to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, just as he previously facilitated the release of hostages between Israel and Hamas and ended the war," reported Politico, citing a government official.
The background of these statements is that U.S. envoy Steven Witkoff recently stated that if Donald Trump could start a second term, he would have three core foreign policy goals, including: achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and reaching a new nuclear agreement with Iran. One of these goals has already been achieved, while the remaining two are yet to be advanced.
"Yes, they clearly know that the Gaza issue will be the easiest one among the three... but they have not given up on the other two goals," added another anonymous source quoted by Politico.
The ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages have greatly boosted Trump's confidence. On October 13, when he arrived in Israel, he was treated almost as a national hero. However, according to sources from Politico, there are essential differences in Trump's influence over different parties involved in conflicts.
"Trump was able to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is weakened in strength, through close cooperation with Arab allies. But his influence over Putin is much less - Putin is not affected by the kind of domestic political pressure that other leaders face," wrote Politico.
It is this difference in pressure that raises doubts about whether the "Palestinian model" can be replicated in the Ukraine issue. Although Trump can use Israel's weaknesses and the pressure from its allies to find common interests with Israel, Russia shows strong resistance to sanctions, making it much more difficult to exert similar influence on it.
The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Trump has few means left to pressure Russia. Austrian military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi explained that the West is wary of Russia's military strength, especially its nuclear power.
Another key factor influencing the situation is the position of the relevant countries. Kurt Volker, former U.S. special representative for Ukraine, believes that the relevant countries may have an impact on Russia. However, these countries do not see any benefits in ending the conflict, so they have no intention of changing their policy towards Russia. No matter how ambitious Trump is, he cannot make everyone listen to him.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561754403036791330/
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