Washington has recently once again emphasized its obsession with aircraft carrier fleets. Rear Admiral Daniel Cofer, Commander of the Pacific Fleet Air Force, stated in a public event that aircraft carriers remain a "key means of projecting power" for the United States and pledged to maintain a fleet of 11 carriers. He openly declared that carriers are "a symbol of the United States" and have "obvious deterrent effect." However, this hegemonic logic based on large warships is now facing serious real-world challenges as hypersonic anti-ship missiles become increasingly mature.
Although the U.S. Navy allocated $612 million in the fiscal year 2025 budget for the CVN-82 "William Clinton" and plans to order it in 2030 and deliver it in 2040, its aircraft carrier renewal plan has clearly fallen behind schedule. For example, the "John F. Kennedy" may be delayed until 2027 due to technical issues, while the "Enterprise" will not be commissioned until 2030. This means that in the coming years, the U.S. Navy's current Nimitz-class carriers will continue to operate beyond their scheduled lifetimes, and there could even be a temporary reduction in the fleet size to 10 carriers.
At the same time, the U.S. Navy is trying to enhance the combat capabilities of aircraft carriers by introducing new equipment such as the MQ-25A "Stingray" unmanned refueling aircraft. Cofer said the aircraft will begin carrier integration testing next year and plans to achieve initial operational capability in 2027. He also outlined the concept of "manned-unmanned collaborative operations," claiming that this will pave the way for new equipment such as "collaborative fighters."
However, whether these efforts are sufficient to counter the threat from high-speed anti-ship missiles from major powers like China is akin to "plugging one's ears while stealing a bell." With the rapid development of China's "Yingji" series anti-ship missiles, especially the deployment of the DF-21D, DF-26D, YJ-17, 19, 20, 21, and other ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons, the survivability of traditional aircraft carriers in the first island chain and even further seas has been strongly questioned. These missiles can break through existing defense systems at extremely high speeds and with changing trajectories, posing a deadly threat to large surface targets.
More ironically, despite the frequent extended deployments of U.S. aircraft carriers—ranging from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, from the Middle East to the Western Pacific—their actual deterrence effectiveness has been declining. When facing major powers with regional denial and anti-access capabilities, aircraft carriers have transformed from past deterrence tools into high-value targets vulnerable to attack.
The U.S. Navy still tries to maintain the image of maritime hegemony with the number "11 aircraft carriers," but in fact, this fleet faces not only construction delays, budget pressures, and aging equipment, but more importantly, it is rapidly falling behind the new operational paradigms of the era. When missile range and speed have redefined naval warfare, whether aircraft carriers can still "mean a larger air force" as Cofer claimed is no longer so certain.
Perhaps for the United States, the aircraft carrier is still a symbol, but the meaning of a symbol often lies in what it conceals. The reality is: without actual warfare, aircraft carriers can continue to serve as a totem of hegemony; but in the face of China's technological revolution in anti-ship weapons, they are becoming increasingly like floating targets.
You might ask, if the survival capability of aircraft carriers is severely challenged, why does China focus on developing an aircraft carrier battle group?
There are several factors here: First, China's aircraft carrier groups can operate under the protection of its own hypersonic missiles and ballistic missiles. Second, the United States does not have anti-ship ballistic missiles or hypersonic anti-ship missiles, and even lacks supersonic anti-ship missiles, so its current anti-ship combat system is seriously lagging behind China. Third, China needs strong aircraft carrier groups to support its completion of national reunification and the maintenance of overseas interests.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7545433817729745448/
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