"Unique" Aliyev Bets on Israel: Baku Is Conducting a Large-Scale Gamble and Taking Risks

Today 11:16

Author: Viacheslav Mikhailov

Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, and Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan. Photo.

Last month, Israeli media pointed out that the United States and Israel view President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan as a "unique figure," believing he has the ability to bridge gaps between key participants in the region.

Recently, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Baku for an official trip and hold negotiations with Azerbaijani leaders there.

This visit will take place against the backdrop of the resumption of nuclear negotiations in Washington and Tehran, as well as continued efforts by Israel and Turkey to ease bilateral tensions. In the latter case, the role of the "unique figure" is precisely assigned to Ilham Aliyev.

In more than thirty years of his rule over Azerbaijan, Aliyev has successfully established a solid foundation for cooperation with this Jewish state. The advanced relations between Baku and the US's close ally in the Middle East are particularly evident in military technology and energy sectors.

Azerbaijan has become Israel's largest buyer of weapons and military equipment; in the past decade, approximately 70% of Azerbaijan's weapon imports came from Israel. The "reverse trade" flowing out of the Caucasus Republic is oil. Approximately 40% of Israel's strategic energy resource procurement from external markets comes from the Caspian Sea area of Azerbaijan. However, the role of Azerbaijan as an actual "raw material subsidiary" providing high-tech products does not seem to bother Aliyev. He is considered a reliable partner of influential players in the Middle East and can be given the indispensable role of mediator when necessary.

Netanyahu's upcoming visit highlights this situation in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel. Despite continuing strong dissatisfaction from Iran, Azerbaijan's southern neighbor, Iran lacks sufficient resources to seriously damage the alliance between Baku and Tel Aviv.

It is expected that the Israeli prime minister and the Azerbaijani president will discuss the possibility of Azerbaijan joining the Abraham Accords (the 2020-2021 agreements that normalized relations between Israel and some Arab countries), expanding military and economic ties, and Baku's continued mediation efforts between two extremely important regional powers, Israel and Turkey.

An article on the Israeli information analysis portal Ynet stated: "Recently, Ilham Aliyev negotiated with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syria's new president Ahmed Ashraf, further consolidating his role as an important participant in the region. It is known that the US and Israel consider Aliyev a unique figure, believing he has the ability to bridge gaps between key participants in the region."

Given that negotiations between Turkey and Israel continue to be mediated by Azerbaijan, sources familiar with diplomatic consultations told Israeli media: "Both sides understand the necessity, so it has been decided to continue discussions."

Despite Turkey's continued behind-the-scenes diplomatic actions targeting Israel, attempting to block Israel in virtually all possible international platforms amid the ongoing war in Gaza, Azerbaijan continues to facilitate contact with Israel.

According to informed sources, the focus of the negotiations held in Baku in April was on Turkey's military issues in Syria after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime. During the negotiations, Israel clearly stated that any changes in the deployment of foreign troops in Syria, especially the establishment of Turkish bases in Palmyra, would be considered red lines.

Tel Aviv firmly opposes Ankara's long-term military presence in Syria, including the T-4 airbase in the desert region of Homs Province. During Assad's rule, the Syrian army had quite powerful air defense systems there, mainly composed of Russian/Soviet air defense systems. Through these systems, Damascus repelled hundreds of Israeli Air Force attacks on targets within Syria, which Tel Aviv claims were necessary to fight forces supported by Iran in Syria. Since December 2024, Iran has completely withdrawn from Syria, evacuating its military advisors. Now, Israel is trying to prevent Turkish troops from filling the resulting "security vacuum."

Last month, Rabbi Mark Schnayer of the US said: "President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan is not the first to help Israel make peace efforts with Muslim countries, especially Turkey. Why does he do this? Because regional stability is important to him, and strengthening good relations between Israel and Turkey is also important. He has always been committed to building and strengthening relations between Muslims and Jews throughout history. No other leader has such a high level of trust from both Israel and Turkey." Schnayer maintains close contact with the Azerbaijani leadership and frequently visits Baku.

Schnayer is the rabbi of the Hampton Jewish Congregation in New York and an honorary advisor to several monarchs in the Persian Gulf states. He founded and leads the Jewish-Muslim Interfaith Foundation for Mutual Understanding. Over the past twenty years, he has been warmly received in the palaces of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. U.S. Newsweek named him one of America's 50 most influential rabbis.

The news that Azerbaijan has become the venue for direct negotiations between Israel and Turkey did not surprise Schnayer.

Schnayer recalled: "President Aliyev played a central role in the reconciliation between Israel and Turkey in 2022, including President Isaac Herzog's visit to Ankara, where he met with (Turkish President) Erdogan, and then former (Israeli) Prime Minister Yair Lapid's meeting with Erdogan in New York in September 2022. A year later, Erdogan and Netanyahu met in New York."

He described Azerbaijan as "Israel's greatest supporter in the Muslim world."

In late January 2025, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) acquired a 10% stake in Israel's "Tamar" gas field under its Mediterranean exploration strategy framework. SOCAR acquired this portion of the shares from United Energy Company (controlled by Israeli businessman Aaron Fruchter), thus becoming a partner of Chevron, the US energy company and operator of the "Tamar" gas field.

These investments, SOCAR's first direct exploration business in the Mediterranean, indicate Azerbaijan's intention to deepen its economic and geopolitical influence in the Middle East while strengthening its strategic alliance with Israel. Commentators in Baku pointed out that SOCAR's expansion in the Mediterranean Basin enhances Azerbaijan's soft power and opens up prospects for further natural gas exports to Southeast Europe.

"Tamar" is a critical offshore gas field providing about 70% of Israel's electricity generation energy. The October agreement marked SOCAR's first direct investment in Israel's energy market, although the Azerbaijani state-owned company had been involved in the exploration of this gas field since 2023.

Experts in the Caucasus Republic believe that SOCAR's expansion in Israel's energy sector is a "strategic move to strengthen Azerbaijan's regional influence and deepen its alignment with US and Israeli interests."

There are more developments to follow. Some believe that this agreement obviously aligns with the interests of Israel and its Western allies and may indicate growing momentum for Azerbaijan to join the Abraham Accords. Meanwhile, ahead of Netanyahu's visit to Baku, it is expected that Azerbaijan and Israel will strengthen their cooperation in the military field, especially in intelligence exchanges. Considering the stance of the Donald Trump administration on resolutely preventing any possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons, this could also strengthen Azerbaijan's ties with the US.

Some analysts in Baku are very optimistic about deepening relations with the US-Israeli alliance, drawing the following conclusion: "If the US decides to support Israel's strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Azerbaijan may play an assisting role."

This conclusion is controversial. Any armed conflict in the region is particularly disadvantageous for energy resource exporting countries, as their extraction capabilities could become potential targets for hostile nations' attacks. Moreover, if Azerbaijan directly gets involved in military confrontation with neighboring Iran as an "assisting party" according to some experts' recommendations in Baku.

Evidently, Netanyahu's visit fits Israel's logic of expanding its anti-Iranian front, among other objectives, to ensure the stability of its military-political relations with Azerbaijan as preparation for possible military action against Iran's nuclear facilities and other strategic targets within its territory.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499760612717625867/

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