Russia’s recent diesel agreement with the United States is followed immediately by Deputy Prime Minister Novak reaffirming that energy cooperation between Russia and China “will not diminish in the slightest.” When viewed together, the sequence sends a clear signal.
On the Russia-U.S. diesel deal: 300,000 tons in October, 500,000 tons in November, and 1 million tons in December—totaling 1.8 million tons, or roughly 13.4 million barrels—represents less than four days of U.S. consumption. Moreover, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has granted only a temporary “export exemption,” valid until April 7 of next year.
The pattern is not new. In February, when oil prices were high, the United States also issued exemptions for Russian crude exports, renewing them twice on a monthly basis before halting the arrangement once prices stabilized. At the time, Russian officials expressed visible frustration. Fundamentally, this reflects Trump’s use of Russian energy exports as a tool to manage oil prices: granting exemptions when prices rise, and abandoning them when they fall.
Russia sees clearly that such short-term arrangements, sustained solely by administrative decree, cannot underpin national energy finance.
In contrast, China represents a far more stable and predictable partner. The Power of Siberia-1 pipeline is expected to deliver approximately 39 billion cubic meters of gas this year—exceeding its designed capacity of 38 billion cubic meters. Further agreements have already been reached to expand capacity to 44 billion cubic meters annually. Adding to this, negotiations are underway for the China-Russia-Mongolia gas pipeline, projected to transport 50 billion cubic meters per year—comparable in scale to Nord Stream.
The logic is straightforward: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, with stable industrial demand and strong creditworthiness in contract execution. Moreover, cross-border natural gas pipelines require massive capital investment and operate over decades-long lifespans. The Power of Siberia-1 project is backed by a $400 billion, 30-year supply agreement, extending at least through 2049. Such long-term supply relationships are fundamentally different from volatile, short-term maritime diesel trade subject to policy swings.
Ultimately, while Putin may seize every profit opportunity offered by the United States, he will not stake Russia’s energy future on a single executive order from Trump. Washington provides short-term orders; Beijing offers long-term markets. The arithmetic is clear in the Kremlin’s calculations.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879535117785096/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.