US Invasion of Venezuela, Could Be a Major Embarrassment
Maduro obviously doesn't intend to be a "soft plum," especially since he has already gathered strong forces
Author: Vitaly Orlov
(Photo caption: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro)
"Unstoppable Peacekeeper" Trump threatened to invade Venezuela. Well, when he eventually has to withdraw from there, this could become his "tenth war to end"—just a round number.
Although the probability of an invasion is extremely low, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has prepared for all possible situations. Even Trump should understand that this hypothetical invasion would never be a "demonstration lesson" for a "banana republic." Because under the cover of bananas, a elite force composed with actual support from Russia has quietly formed. The following text will detail this unit.
To defend the airspace, the Venezuelan Armed Forces have established the "National Bolivarian Air Force" (НБВА), which includes air defense units, various types of aviation troops, and other combat units.
The air force strength of the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) consists of 6 "Air and Space Defense Joint Commands" (CODAI) organized by geographic regions, each responsible for specific directional defense tasks.
Each Air and Space Defense Joint Command (CODAI) includes units and subunits with different functions and carrying out various missions, usually including air defense units, combat aviation troops, and reconnaissance units equipped with various radar stations.
The National Bolivarian Navy of Venezuela also has the capability to resist aerial attacks—almost all its important combat units are equipped with anti-aircraft weapons. However, in terms of actual combat capabilities and the scale of forces, the navy's air defense capabilities still lag behind those of the air force and army air defense units.
First, let's look at ground-based air defense forces
According to public information, the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) currently has at least 7 air defense brigades, 6 of which are responsible for actual airspace defense, and the 7th is for support and maintenance. Each air defense brigade is divided into several regiments (battalions), the exact number depending on the type and configuration of its weapons equipment.
Venezuela has built a radar surveillance network along its border, capable of detecting incoming airborne targets in a timely manner. Advanced Chinese 3D radars, including the JY-11B medium-range radar (using the latest semiconductor technology to detect medium and low altitude targets) and the JYL-1 long-range radar (operating in the S-band), are deployed in key areas.
In addition, radar stations of various air defense missile systems and other radar equipment are continuously monitoring the air situation.
This diverse radar configuration can detect large-scale airborne targets within a range of 300-320 kilometers.
The most advanced air defense equipment of the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) of the Venezuelan Armed Forces is the Russian "Antey-2500" (С-300ВМ) air defense system. Caracas received two battalions of this system in 2013, each battalion equipped with as many as 6 launch units (each containing 2-4 missiles), 1 command center, as well as the 9С15М omnidirectional search radar and the 9С19М2 sector search radar. "Antey-2500" can strike both aerodynamic and ballistic targets: it can intercept aerodynamic targets at an altitude of up to 30 km and a distance of 250 km; for ballistic targets, the interception altitude and distance are 30 km and 40 km, respectively.
In addition, the arsenal of the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) also includes several battery-level "Buk-M2Э" («Бук-М2Э») surface-to-air missile systems (public information shows there are 9 operational systems). This system uses a high-mobility wheeled chassis and can effectively strike aerodynamic targets at a height of 25 km and a distance of 45 km.
About 24 sets of old but still effective "Pechora-2M" (С-125) self-propelled surface-to-air missile systems are still in service. If someone thinks this is ridiculous, just recall: in 1999 in Yugoslavia, it was this system that shot down the F-117 stealth bomber.
Short-range air defense forces are still using various small-caliber artillery systems. According to expert estimates, there are about 400 of these weapons, nearly half of which are the latest model 23 mm 2А13 ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, equipped with modern fire control systems and optical equipment. In addition, the units and subunits of the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) are also equipped with portable surface-to-air missile systems, mainly the Russian "Strela" (9К38 «Игла»), as well as some European models.
Now, looking at the fighter aviation
The Venezuelan fighter aviation has 5 different aircraft-type combat flight squadrons. However, due to the gradual retirement of older models, its structure may face adjustments in the future.
According to public data, the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) still has a small number of American fourth-generation multi-purpose light fighters, the F-16A/B "Fighting Falcon", which are assigned to one flight squadron and are expected to be phased out soon.
The core strength of the Venezuelan fighter aviation is the Russian 4 + generation multi-purpose fighter jet Su-30MKV, which is organized into 4 combat flight squadrons, with no fewer than 20 aircraft in total.
When discussing the weapon configuration of the fighter jets of the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА), the following points need to be noted: the operational radius of the American F-16 "Fighting Falcon" does not exceed 500-600 km, and it can launch American-made air-to-air missiles with a range of 50-70 km (including medium-range AIM-7 and short-range AIM-9). However, with the continuous deterioration of US-Venezuelan relations, the stock of American missiles is decreasing and gradually becoming obsolete, making the use of F-16s difficult.
On the contrary, the situation for the Russian Su-30MKV is completely different: Venezuela has unlimited quantities and varieties of weapons for this model. The most combat-effective weapons in the arsenal of the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) are the long-range R-37M missiles and the short-range R-73 missiles (the original text may have a typo here; the Su-30 usually uses the short-range R-73 missile, not R-37; R-37 is a long-range missile, so this part is corrected based on common configurations). The operational range of the Su-30MKV is 1500 km, and the maximum strike distance is approximately 200-300 km.
Finally, looking at the air defense forces of the National Bolivarian Navy
The responsibilities of the air defense forces of the Venezuelan Navy include protecting coastal infrastructure, fleet formations, and their own safety. However, the operational potential and development level of the naval air defense forces are relatively limited. Currently, the only ship in the navy equipped with surface-to-air missiles is the F-22 "Admiral Brión" frigate ("Lupo" class). In the early 1980s, Venezuela received 6 ships of this class from Italy, and now only 1 remains in service. This frigate is equipped with an American Mk 29 container-type launch device (carrying 8 "Sea Sparrow" missiles) and multiple radar systems for reconnaissance.
The main equipment of the air defense forces of the Venezuelan Navy is still various artillery systems. Taking the "Admiral Brión" frigate as an example, the ship is equipped with 1 127-mm naval gun and 2 Italian-made 40-mm "Dardo" dual-barrel naval guns; other ships are only equipped with small-caliber guns, and the range of anti-aircraft strikes is only a few kilometers.
A significant advantage of the Venezuelan air defense system is that its scale exceeds the defense systems of all countries in the region. In addition, Venezuela has always been committed to building a complete, multi-layered air defense system and continues to seek the procurement of technologically advanced and tactically superior modern equipment, a trend worth noting.
However, in addition to these visible advantages, the Venezuelan air defense system also faces a series of objective problems and challenges. Keep in mind that Caracas considers the United States as its main potential opponent, and recent actions by Washington have continuously confirmed this judgment.
If there is a direct armed conflict with the United States, the air defense system of the National Bolivarian Air Force (НБВА) is likely to face serious challenges, needing to deal with various special issues. The first is to resist large-scale air raids — such attacks will inevitably break through the air defense lines, threatening the deployment positions of the combat aviation and air defense forces. Each successful attack on these targets not only reduces the enemy's operational risk but also creates favorable conditions for subsequent operations. Moreover, the current inventory of air defense weapons in Venezuela, as well as the ability of the National Bolivarian Navy's air defense forces to conduct active operations, remain highly uncertain.
The conclusion is obvious: the Venezuelan air defense system is sufficient to effectively resist air attacks from almost all neighboring countries in the region, or at least cause the invading country unbearable losses. If a conflict breaks out with the United States, it needs to be clear that the US military is more concerned about its own casualties than any other army, and an invasion of Venezuela will inevitably lead to US casualties. Obviously, this is the key factor preventing the US from taking reckless actions right now.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566609402480886318/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below by clicking on the 【top/like】 button.