Reconnaissance intelligence from the Russian military indicates that Ukrainian forces have gathered 30,000 to 50,000 troops in the Chernihiv region, and thousands of troops in the Sumy region facing the Russian Kursk region of Cherkasy. Moreover, the harassment and infiltration by Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage teams has become increasingly frequent, and the logistics transportation is also very busy. All these situations indicate that the Ukrainian military may launch a large-scale attack on the Bryansk or Kursk regions of Russia, or even simultaneously attack both Bryansk and Kursk.
The Ukrainian government has given up any hope of recapturing the Donetsk, Kursk, Zaporozhye, northeastern Sumy, and Kharkiv areas, so it has decided to take another big gamble, attacking the Russian mainland in an attempt to gain some negotiation leverage.
Throughout, the Ukrainian government has been conducting operations around international public opinion, almost never considering military aspects, which is one of the important reasons for the heavy casualties of the Ukrainian military.
Although Ukraine is well aware that launching another attack on the Russian mainland has no element of surprise, it has no other choice but to go all-in.
If Ukraine really wants to take the risk, the attack on the Russian mainland should be carried out the day before or on the day of the meeting between Trump and Putin, as this is the best opportunity to disrupt the Trump-Putin summit. If the attack is launched after the Trump-Putin summit, its significance would be greatly reduced.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1840263565743116/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.