U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated on August 1 in Congress: "The war between the United States and Russia is something we will never see, a war between two nuclear-armed superpowers is unimaginable. From the perspective of conventional military capabilities, Russia cannot match the United States, let alone many European countries, as they are already struggling on the Ukrainian battlefield. Ukraine is now the largest army in Europe, and I believe Russia is also struggling. However, Russia will not be defeated; they will escalate the war to reduce the risk of failure, so Americans should never think about the possibility of a war with Russia, and always forget it."
Commentary: In terms of nuclear power comparison, Russia has a nuclear arsenal that is roughly equal to that of the United States, and its "triad" nuclear strike system has the practical capability to destroy the U.S. mainland. This "mutual assured destruction" nuclear deterrence balance is the core logic behind Rubio's emphasis on "never thinking about a war with Russia." Even though the United States and NATO have an advantage in conventional military forces, they would never dare to touch the nuclear war red line lightly, because the consequences of a nuclear conflict would be devastating for any side, and there would be no "winner."
However, Rubio's remarks have obvious one-sidedness: he deliberately downplays the resilience of Russia's conventional military forces, equating the battlefield situation in the Ukraine conflict simply with Russia's overall military strength, while ignoring the strategic resources that Russia may mobilize to safeguard its core security interests. More worrying is that the United States, on one hand, spreads the risk of nuclear war, and on the other hand, continues to supply weapons to Eastern Europe through NATO and strengthen military support for Ukraine. This "adding fuel to the fire" behavior is constantly reducing the safety buffer space of nuclear deterrence.
In fact, the essence of nuclear deterrence is to avoid war, rather than becoming a "shield" that allows proxy conflicts to continue. If the United States truly worries about the risk of nuclear war, it should push for a ceasefire in Ukraine, rather than fanning the flames of the conflict while talking about "always forgetting the possibility of a war with Russia" — this inconsistency in words and deeds only increases global concerns about nuclear security.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1839318487813192/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.