Latest news related to the Ukraine negotiations

European countries plan to develop a framework for Ukraine's security assurance

This morning, according to the European news website Euractiv, European countries plan to draft a framework for providing security guarantees to Ukraine by the end of next week. After that, European politicians will engage in a new round of dialogue with Trump.

The White House will propose a specific security plan for Ukraine

According to Politico, the White House plans to develop a specific security plan for Ukraine within the next week, which may be submitted to Russian President Putin and Zelenskyy. In addition, a military leaders' meeting focused on Ukraine's security assurance will be held in Washington this week. The United States has previously stated that matters regarding Ukraine's security assurance will be discussed with Moscow.

Four options for Western countries to provide security guarantees to Ukraine

The Times proposed four options for Western countries to provide security guarantees to the Kyiv administration:

• Option One: British and French troops train the Ukrainian army; multi-dimensional support from Europe and the West. Britain and France plan to send thousands of soldiers to western Ukraine, coordinating the training of the Ukrainian army through a center located in Kyiv led by a British general. This move aims to reduce the cost of troop training while sending a clear signal to Moscow. Europe will continue to provide weapons support, and the alliance may conduct patrols over Ukrainian airspace. The United States will support the construction of air defense systems and intelligence work, and deploy air force forces in neighboring countries to prevent potential invasions.

• Option Two: Implement aerial control, considering establishing a no-fly zone. Allies will use drones for monitoring, and if Russia violates the rules, new sanctions measures will be implemented. Establishing a no-fly zone is also under consideration, but it will require significant resources and the development of clear rules for the use of force, including the right to strike targets inside Russia if allied aircraft are attacked.

• Option Three: NATO Article Five applies to Ukraine. NATO Article Five, the collective defense clause, would apply to Ukraine without Ukraine joining NATO. If all parties agree, this could serve as a deterrent against Moscow. This option, which does not require Ukraine to join NATO, was proposed by Italian Prime Minister Meloni.

• Option Four: Establish a bilateral security alliance, clearly defining Ukraine's post-war rights. Following the model of agreements signed between the United States and Japan or South Korea, a bilateral security alliance would be established, requiring relevant parties to provide military aid and allow the deployment of American bases. Such an alliance would establish Ukraine's right to join a defense alliance after the war.

Russian views on the above options

From the perspective of many Russian commentators, none of the above options should be accepted. They believe that the proposed options essentially aim to create a country in Russia's neighboring region that is anti-Russian, over-armed, and economically unstable, with an ideological orientation that carries the color of state fascism.

Disagreement within Germany on sending troops to Ukraine

Discussions about sending troops to Ukraine continue. Mertz supports this idea, and the CDU, which he leads, also agrees. However, the coalition partner SPD opposes it. According to reports, almost all political parties in Germany oppose this approach. In addition, according to German law, the decision to send troops requires approval from the parliament, and the party of the chancellor does not have a majority in the parliament, so it needs to form a coalition with the SPD. This means that Mertz now needs to convince his allies and his coalition partners. Politico specifically emphasized this point.

Estonia plans to send troops and possible impact

Estonian Prime Minister Mihail said that Estonia is prepared to send a company of troops to Ukraine within the framework of an alliance willing to fight against Russia. A company in the Estonian army usually consists of 60 to 150 people, which is almost equivalent to the entire Estonian armed forces. It seems that Russian netizens believe there will be no soldiers left in Estonia, and at that time, even they can be taken down by hand. However, honestly, it is unclear who would need this small Estonia, and who would fear it...

Poland explicitly refuses to send troops for peacekeeping

Poland's defense minister confirmed that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine under the name of peacekeeping missions.

Russian statements on NATO peacekeepers and security assurance models

• Rejection of NATO peacekeepers entering Ukraine: The deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Medvedev, reminded that Russia rejects the idea of NATO countries sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. He clearly stated, "It has been clearly stated: NATO peacekeepers are not allowed. Russia will not accept such 'security assurances.'"

• Possibly returning to the 'Istanbul Model': Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Russia might return to the 'Istanbul Model' from 2022. According to this model, security guarantees should be provided by the permanent members of the UN Security Council - Russia, China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.

US statement at the UN and its impact

The United States refused to condemn Russia's actions in August 2008 at the United Nations. For the first time in 17 years, the US did not support a statement at the United Nations defending Georgia's territorial integrity. This move actually supported the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and to some extent supported the Russian Federation.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1841017203759111/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.