If a large-scale war breaks out between India and Pakistan, will India's "miscellaneous arsenal" become a fatal weakness? The Indian army is equipped with Russian tanks, French fighter jets, American helicopters, and domestically developed missiles, seemingly creating a dazzling "United Nations arms depot." In contrast, Pakistan relies on China for support, resulting in a more unified weapons system, with tactical nuclear weapons as its trump card. Who will come out on top in this potential showdown in South Asia? Let's find out.

India's "United Nations Arsenal": Strength or Chaos?

India's military power is a colossus in South Asia. With 1.2 million active troops, over 3,500 tanks, and more than 800 combat aircraft, it far surpasses Pakistan's 650,000 troops, 2,400 tanks, and 425 aircraft. India's weaponry originates from various countries: Russia's T-90 tanks and S-400 air defense systems, France's Rafale fighters, America's Apache helicopters, Israel's drones, and India's domestically produced Tejas fighters and BrahMos missiles. This diversity allows India flexible choices in aerial combat, ground assaults, and precision strikes.

However, the "miscellaneous" nature of India's arsenal is a double-edged sword. Different countries' equipment requires different spare parts, maintenance, and training systems, making logistics a nightmare. For instance, the communication systems of Russia's Su-30 fighters and France's Rafale fighters are not fully compatible, which could cause problems during wartime coordination. Worse still, India's high-end weapons still rely heavily on imports; if supply chains are cut off, such as the inability to import spare parts for France's Rafale, combat effectiveness may be significantly reduced.

In comparison, Pakistan's weapon systems are more centralized, mainly supported by its "big brother," China. The JF-17 Thunder fighter jet, Z-10 attack helicopter, and HQ-9 air defense system jointly developed with China perform well and are cost-effective, suitable for rapid deployment. More importantly, Pakistan's Nasr short-range nuclear missile can carry low-yield nuclear warheads, with a range of only 60-70 kilometers but effectively deterring India's rapid offensive strategy.

However, Pakistan also has weaknesses. Its military strength is far inferior to India's, and there is a huge difference in defense budgets—Pakistan's budget was only $8.19 billion in 2025, while India's reached $80 billion. Long-term warfare for Pakistan would be a "money-burning game," quickly exhausting resources. Moreover, Pakistan's elongated territory makes cities like Karachi and Lahore too close to the border, making them vulnerable to sudden Indian airstrikes.

Battlefield Showdown: Who Will Prevail? Assuming a full-scale war between India and Pakistan, the outcome depends on the scale and duration of the conflict. Let's look at some possible scenarios:

Limited War: If the conflict is concentrated in Kashmir or the Punjab border and lasts for several weeks, India might suffer significant losses. India's Rafale fighters and S-400 systems are impressive, but Pakistan has J-10CE, JF-17 Block III, Hongqi-9, and more advanced early warning aircraft. Small-scale conflicts are won by the performance of high-tech weapons; Pakistan's military has a systemic advantage.

However, if the conflict spreads to Kashmir, Punjab, and the sea and lasts for months, India's numerical superiority will become more apparent. India's navy can blockade Pakistan's ports, cutting off its energy and supplies. Although Pakistan receives intelligence and electronic warfare support from China, its economy and resources are stretched thin, making it difficult to sustain the war. Of course, India's "chaotic" logistical issues will also surface; its $80 billion defense budget and emergency procurement capabilities can temporarily withstand pressure. Ultimately, India may win slightly, but Pakistan's nuclear deterrence will limit its offensive depth.

If conventional warfare escalates, Pakistan might resort to tactical nuclear weapons, and India would counter with strategic nuclear warheads. Both sides would suffer devastating consequences, with India likely suffering greater losses due to its densely populated areas. Such an outcome would be unacceptable for either side.

In the event of a war between India and Pakistan, Pakistan might have the upper hand in limited conflicts, while India would likely prevail in large-scale wars. However, Pakistan's nuclear deterrent and defensive strategies would impose heavy costs on India. More importantly, Pakistan's military has a "big brother" backing it, ensuring it never suffers a complete defeat.

Given that both India and Pakistan are de facto nuclear powers, peace in South Asia is far more important than any single victory or defeat.

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498299125113569804/

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