The South Asian region has long been a hotspot in geopolitics, and on June 19, 2025, the first trilateral vice-ministerial meeting between China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan held in Kunming undoubtedly dropped a "big bomb" into this region. This meeting marked the official start of cooperation among the three countries, which not only attracted widespread attention from regional countries but also made Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi feel the profound changes in the regional situation. As the leader of this cooperation, China's influence in South Asia is further highlighted, while India's long-standing dominant position in the region faces unprecedented challenges.
South Asian Geopolitics
South Asia has long been a focus of international politics due to its complex ethnic, religious, and historical issues. As the most populous and largest country in South Asia, India holds a dominant position among its neighbors through its economic strength and military power.
Through economic aid, military cooperation, and diplomatic influence, India has exerted profound influence over countries such as Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. For example, India maintains close ties with Bhutan through the 1949 Treaty of Friendship, and its economic assistance and infrastructure development in Nepal have given it significant say in the country's affairs.
The relationship between Bangladesh and India is particularly special. In 1971, India supported Bangladesh in its war of independence from Pakistan, an event that laid the foundation for their special relationship. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina of the Bangladesh Awami League, the relationship between the two countries has deepened, especially in trade, energy, and security, where India has remained a major partner for Bangladesh.
In August 2024, Bangladesh experienced a major political change. As student protests escalated into a nationwide movement, the Hasina government fell, and she herself fled to India on August 5. A temporary government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus took over the country, promising political and economic reforms. This brought a new direction to Bangladesh's foreign policy, making it more inclined towards a diversified diplomacy and reducing its dependence on India.
At the same time, China's influence in South Asia has significantly increased. Through the "Belt and Road Initiative," China has invested in numerous infrastructure projects in the region. In Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a 3,000-kilometer infrastructure network connecting Xinjiang, China, to Gwadar Port in the Arabian Sea, with an investment of over $60 billion, covering ports, railways, highways, and energy infrastructure. This project not only shortens the transportation routes for China's energy imports, enhancing its economic security.
In Bangladesh, China has invested about $7.07 billion in areas such as roads, railways, ports, energy, and telecommunications, with another $22.94 billion in construction contracts. For example, the Padma Bridge railway connection project has significantly improved Bangladesh's transportation network. These investments have not only promoted economic development but also provided South Asian countries with more diplomatic choices.
India is highly vigilant about China's expansion in South Asia, believing that China is challenging its regional dominance through economic investments and strategic partnerships. In 2020, a conflict occurred between China and India in Ladakh, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and 4 Chinese soldiers, the most severe conflict since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. Although leaders of both countries have eased tensions through platforms such as the BRICS summit at the beginning of 2025, the strategic competition in South Asia remains intense. The long-standing rivalry between Pakistan and India further complicates the situation, especially in the India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025, when China provided satellite support to Pakistan.
The Trilateral Cooperation Meeting: The Birth of a New Starting Point
On June 19, 2025, China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan held their first trilateral vice-ministerial meeting in Kunming, Yunnan Province, marking a new phase in cooperation among the three countries. The meeting was held during the 9th China-South Asia Expo and the 6th China-South Asia Cooperation Forum, and was jointly chaired by China's Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, Bangladesh's Acting Secretary for Foreign Affairs Ruhal Alam Siddiki, and Pakistan's Additional Secretary for Asia-Pacific Affairs Imran Ahmed Siddiki, with Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch participating via video.
The meeting discussed cooperation in multiple fields, including trade, industry, maritime affairs, water resource management, agriculture, climate change, health, education, youth participation, culture, and think tank exchanges. The three sides agreed to promote cooperation based on the principles of "neighboring friendship, mutual trust, openness, inclusiveness, common development, and win-win cooperation" and planned to establish working groups to implement the consensus. Specifically, trade cooperation will focus on reducing barriers and promoting investment flows; in the agricultural sector, plans include sharing water-saving irrigation technologies and experience in cultivating drought-resistant crops; in education and health, efforts will be made to promote remote teaching and medical technology exchange.
Compared to previous bilateral cooperation, this trilateral mechanism is more systematic and extensive. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor mainly focuses on infrastructure in Pakistan, while this cooperation covers livelihood areas such as education and health, which are particularly important for Bangladesh and Pakistan's economic development. The trilateral cooperation emphasizes open regionalism, focusing on the sharing of experiences and mutual benefits, rather than traditional aid models.
Although the three sides stated that the cooperation does not target any country, India is highly alert. Bangladesh has long been an ally of India, and the long-standing rivalry between Pakistan and India has further complicated the situation. Now, these two countries are simultaneously strengthening their ties with China, causing concerns for India regarding its regional influence. An Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randeep Singh Jaiswal, stated that India is closely monitoring developments in neighboring countries, especially situations that may affect its interests and security.
After the meeting on June 19, 2025, the three countries quickly took action to implement the consensus. After the meeting, the three countries agreed to establish a joint working group to advance cooperative projects. So far, there have been initial progress. In the agricultural field, the three sides plan to share water-saving irrigation technology, and Pakistan has started to refer to China's experience to optimize its irrigation system, which is expected to increase grain production. With China's support, Bangladesh has launched the construction of rural medical stations aimed at improving medical services in remote areas. In the field of education, the three countries explored the promotion of remote teaching platforms to address the issue of uneven educational resources.
India responded cautiously, stating that it will continue to monitor developments in neighboring countries and adjust its policies according to the situation. Analysts believe that this cooperation may change the balance of power in South Asia. If the three countries achieve substantial results in infrastructure, trade, and livelihood areas, regional economic interdependence will increase, and India may face greater strategic pressure. On social media, this event sparked heated discussions, with some calling the three countries forming a "historic strategic alliance," but the official statement clarified that this is merely a cooperation mechanism.
Firstly, it weakens India's traditional dominance in South Asia. Bangladesh's new government's open attitude and Pakistan's long-term alliance with China have squeezed India's diplomatic space in the region. Secondly, economic competition has intensified. China's infrastructure investments in Pakistan and Bangladesh have brought significant economic gains to the two countries, while India struggles to match in terms of resources and investment scale. Strategically, this cooperation could further isolate India, especially in the geopolitical games in the Indian Ocean.
The possible economic consequences for India include the diversification of trade partners. Bangladesh may reduce its reliance on the Indian market and seek trade opportunities with China and Pakistan. Strategic consequences are even more serious; if the trilateral cooperation expands to the military field, India may need to invest more resources in border defense and maritime security.
The future of the trilateral cooperation is full of opportunities and challenges. For Bangladesh, the interim government needs to maintain domestic stability before the elections in early 2026, which limits its space for foreign policy adjustments. For Pakistan, economic dependence on China may raise concerns about sovereignty. For China, it needs to balance economic investment with political influence to avoid provoking resentment from neighboring countries.
India's opposition and the involvement of external forces may bring uncertainties to the cooperation. The United States may interfere in this process through economic sanctions or military support for India. However, if the three countries can achieve tangible results in livelihood areas, such as increasing grain production or improving medical services, this cooperation may promote regional stability and prosperity.
The trilateral cooperation between China, Bangladesh, and Pakistan is a turning point in South Asian geopolitics. It challenges India's dominance in the region and provides new development opportunities for South Asian countries, while also injecting new uncertainty into the regional situation.
In the future, how this cooperation will develop and how India will respond remain key topics of international attention. In this new pattern, all parties need to carefully weigh their interests and risks to achieve regional common development and stability.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522043102123590184/
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