Wu Dahui: Red Lines and Missiles - A Harsh Textbook of the Geopolitics of the Middle East

Some countries have merely been drawing imaginary red lines on the surface of a calm pond with their brushes; while others have directly pressed the launch button of missiles, burning through the sky with their exhausts and waiting for the echoes of the results.

Iran attacked Dimona.

This is by no means an ordinary coordinate on the map of the Negev Desert that can be ignored. Since the late 1950s, this nuclear city has risen in the depths of the desert, with technical assistance from France. It is the "Holy Grail" of Israel's security system, the place where its so-called "nuclear shield" is forged.

Although Israel has always maintained a policy of "nuclear ambiguity," neither confirming nor denying, it is already an open secret in the international intelligence community. Here are Israel's key, only plutonium production reactor, deeply buried secret laboratories, and the Peres Nuclear Research Center. More importantly, although this is mainly a research and development facility, the nuclear warheads assembled here are stored in highly secure underground bunkers around the site before being installed on missiles.

This is the beating heart of Israel's vast and undisclosed nuclear program, storing strategic deterrent forces capable of changing the regional balance. Attacking this place is not just physical destruction, but a direct stamp on the myth of Israel's half-century monopoly of "Middle Eastern nuclear deterrence."

We once laughed at Iran's vows: every time Israel strikes an Iranian target, it will face an equal retaliation. We once laughed at Iran's way last June to retaliate against U.S. military bases in the Middle East by "notifying first and then launching missiles." But this time, they made it happen.

There was no pretentious diplomatic concern, no weak and powerless summoning of ambassadors, nor those endless, long-winded "consequence warnings." Those usual diplomatic protest words were all thrown aside, replaced by the roaring ballistic missiles.

When the United States and Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities related to targets in December last year, Tehran did not choose to film a bunch of angry domestic propaganda videos to soothe public opinion, nor did it make lengthy public relations preparations. They acted like patient hunters, waiting quietly after the noise, then coldly locking the crosshairs of the ballistic missiles and ruthlessly targeting the objectives.

The shocking images of missiles hitting Dimona are not just physical collisions, but the most vivid and brutal textbook of contemporary geopolitics.

Although the Israeli Defense Forces claimed to have successfully intercepted some incoming targets, videos circulating on social media show huge fireballs exploding in the night sky, with the trails of intercept missiles intertwining with incoming warheads into a chaotic web. Missile debris and fragments from the intercepted missiles scattered in the desert, just a few feet away from these sensitive nuclear facilities. This "close call" is more terrifying than a direct hit—it means Iran has the ability and determination to break through the defense line and precisely strike the core禁区. It means the next target of the attack will be Israel's sensitive nuclear facilities or even its nuclear forces.

If Iran can hit Dimona, they can also target the Stotemicha base deploying the Jericho series of ballistic missiles and the Ramon base deploying air-based nuclear weapons. Both are located at the edge or deep within the Negev Desert.

There is no warmth and politeness here, only naked power rules. Iran has proven a subversive fact: there are no more so-called "untouchable sanctuaries" on the chessboard of the Middle East.

Israel's mythologized high-tech "Iron Dome" and the air defense systems praised by the West are not only expensive, but also appear fragile when facing saturation attacks or hypersonic missile threats. No matter how tight the defense network is, it cannot intercept the determination of the opponent fighting to the death.

A country that has suffered the harshest sanctions for decades and is isolated from the international financial system has finally taken action. There was no extra diplomatic talk, nor any pretentious political gestures. The anger of the weak is unnoticed, only the response of the strong is respected. Iran has kept its promise. Establishing an ironclad credibility of "keeping promises" in international games is more important than seeking the favor of the international community.

International relations are not just endless smooth calculations and interest exchanges in meeting rooms. Sometimes, this kind of straightforwardness like Iran's is needed — a strategic decisiveness of repaying tooth for tooth and striking at the pain points. This is not just a military retaliation, but a historic correction of the balance of power in the Middle East.

There is no need to endure anymore.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1860398478976000/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.