The situation of the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming increasingly favorable for Russia. On July 21, according to a report by the Russian media "Tsar's Fortress," Russian expert Tagirov attributed Russia's victory to three factors: first, Chinese machine tools, second, Iranian ammunition, and third, North Korean reinforcements.

Snapshot of the Russian expert's interview report

This Russian expert summarized three key points (snapshot of the report)

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the West has imposed thousands of sanctions on Russia, with the focus being on military-related projects. Any important equipment related to the military industry, including precision machine tools, chips, etc., is prohibited from being exported to Russia, even through third parties. According to American experts, these sanctions will cause Russia's defense industry to "regress by five years."

Western countries found that Russia's military production capacity is not decreasing but increasing

In all the sanctions, machine tools are the most important. Military manufacturing cannot be separated from machine tools, which are crucial for the production of airplanes, missiles, tanks, submarines, etc. When European and American companies withdrew from the Russian machine tool market, Chinese companies could fill the gap in the Russian machine tool market. After years of effort, China's manufacturing industry has significantly enhanced its competitiveness in the global market, capable of providing all the equipment that Russia needs. The reason why Russia can withstand the entire Western bloc alone is closely related to the supply of Chinese machine tools.

Russian military production has been in a state of rapid growth since the war began, and the total production scale is already three times that of NATO. This cannot be entirely attributed to Russia's own efforts. The success of Chinese manufacturing has provided Russia with a valuable partner, playing a major role in reducing Russia's economic dependence on the West. Now, Russia cannot do without Chinese machine tools.

War of attrition, capacity is the key

Large-scale military production has a direct impact on the war. The essence of the Russia-Ukraine war is a war of attrition, where whoever has more weapons holds the advantage. In addition to their own production, Russia has also obtained weapons from external sources, especially ammunition. Iran has played a significant role in this regard. Iran provides Russia with drones and various types of ammunition. Although the exact quantity is unknown, the scale is definitely not small, otherwise it would not have attracted attention from Western media.

Russia was once quite backward in drone technology, even worse than Ukraine. However, after receiving assistance from Iran, the situation changed. Suicide drones from Iran, nicknamed "Iranian mopeds," have become the main weapon used by Russia to strike Ukrainian rear targets. Now, hundreds of "Iranian mopeds" are launched every night.

"Iranian Mopeds" are being mass-produced at high speed

Aside from Iran, North Korea has also provided substantial aid to Russia. According to South Korean intelligence agencies, North Korea has transported 28,000 containers of ammunition to Russia, equivalent to 12 million shells of 122mm and 152mm calibers. Currently, Russia is continuously transporting North Korean weapons and ammunition to the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine war through a combination of sea and rail transport. According to data from the Ukrainian military intelligence agency, about half of the shells used by the Russian army come from North Korea.

If it weren't for North Korea, Russia wouldn't have a firepower advantage, and this war would not have continued. Compared to this, Europe has provided less than 2 million shells to Ukraine, and therefore, in the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, the ratio of artillery fire between both sides is at least 6:1, often reaching 10:1. The Ukrainian forces cannot compensate for this gap, no matter how many lives they lose.

North Korea not only has shells, but also heavy artillery

Now, North Korea's aid is becoming more and more effective. At first, it was only ammunition, but now, in addition to shells, it also includes ballistic missiles, self-propelled artillery, long-range rocket launchers, and mortars. By the end of 2024, North Korean troops were also seen on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. Regarding North Korea's aid, Western media is very angry, but they can do nothing about it, as it is a country that has been under sanctions for many years but continues to develop.

Now, Western media is vigorously promoting that Russia will launch a large-scale summer offensive, and North Korean troops will also participate in it. According to Western media reports, 30,000 North Korean soldiers will participate in the campaign, and the possible attack target is Odessa.

North Korean soldiers on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine war

There is controversy in Russian media about whether the large-scale summer offensive will focus on Odessa, but they do not deny that an attack may take place. The offensive is actually already underway, and they are "methodically exhausting the enemy." They also do not deny the participation of North Korean troops, and they are confident about the outcome of the offensive, completely believing that they will not fail. The reason is simple: with Chinese machine tools, Iranian ammunition, and North Korean reinforcements, what cannot be achieved? All of this makes the current Russia confident and fearless in confronting NATO directly.

Russian forces are gradually wearing down the Ukrainians

Now, Ukraine is organizing its defense, but it does not have the capability to make up for all the gaps. It is now just a matter of what choices Russia makes. The condition for Ukraine to remain undefeated is only that NATO participates in the war. For NATO, Russia has no fear at all; it only considers the existence of NATO as a theoretical deterrence that would complicate the plans. Direct involvement of NATO in the Russia-Ukraine war would only lead to direct conflict with Russia, which is a consequence that the West cannot bear.

The situation of the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming increasingly favorable for Russia. Ukraine is no longer able to resist, and NATO is also not willing to participate. The outcome of the war is already certain, it is just a question of when Ukraine will accept it.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7529867519847416363/

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