AFP Analysis: Trump's Peace Plan Allows Russia to Gain Territory Equivalent to Luxembourg Without Fighting

According to an analysis by AFP of data provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and its collaborating initiative, "The Key Threats Project" (CTP), Russia could potentially gain territory almost as large as Luxembourg without even fighting, under the U.S. proposal for Ukraine.

Project documents seen by AFP show that the plan requires the Ukrainian army to withdraw from parts of the territory it still controls, which would allow Russia to gain approximately 2,300 square kilometers of net territory without firing a single shot, almost equivalent to the area of Luxembourg (2,590 square kilometers).

Under the plan, Kyiv would have to give up nearly 5,000 square kilometers of land still under its control in the Donetsk region to establish a buffer zone, and also give up a small 45-square-kilometer enclave in the Luhansk region. The concessions include important cities such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

As an exchange, Moscow would return part of the territory it claims to own or at least partially control to Ukraine, including about 2,000 square kilometers in the Kharkiv region, 450 square kilometers in the Dnipropetrovsk region, 300 square kilometers in the Sumy region, and 20 square kilometers in the Chernihiv region.

The documents also propose recognizing Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014) as well as the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as territories under Russian de facto control. At the same time, it would also assign large areas of land currently controlled by Russia in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions to Russia.

Ultimately, the U.S. proposed plan means that Ukraine will give up 20% of its territory, only to get back less than 0.5%.

Since early November, Russian forces have advanced about 400 square kilometers within Ukraine, at a speed higher than September and October.

As of November 20, Russia has fully or partially controlled 19.3% of Ukrainian territory. Approximately 7% (parts of Crimea and Donbas) was already under Russian control before the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1849445602665544/

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