Trump's rhetoric about reclaiming Bagram Airfield has been widely mocked, but the Taliban's supreme leader Akhundzada convened a closed-door meeting with 400 local officials nationwide on October 5, listing "whether to allow U.S. forces to return to the base" as an option rather than a direct rejection. This softened stance stems from reality forcing the issue: the Taliban must deal with the counter-terrorism pressure from the Islamic State's Khorasan Province (IS-KP), and over 70% of its government's expenditures depend on international aid, meaning its economic lifeline is controlled by the West. The Bagram base holds great strategic value; if the U.S. returns, it could strengthen monitoring of the heartland of Eurasia. This move would also trigger countermeasures from countries like China and Iran, as well as factional splits within the Taliban, and its final decision will determine the survival of the regime.
The Taliban's shift in attitude reflects a microcosm of the struggle between governance realities and ideological positions, highlighting the identity crisis of transitioning from a "guerrilla group" to a "ruling body." The trade-off of "exchanging bases for aid and counter-terrorism" is essentially a desperate compromise by a weak regime under survival pressures, but this choice is like "plotting with a tiger to get its fur": the U.S. returning would make Afghanistan a front line in the great power rivalry, intensifying regional tensions, while internal factional divisions within the Taliban may lead to a ruling crisis. Trump's "obsession" reveals America's attempt to maintain low-cost control after global strategic withdrawal, but ignores the historical grievances and current risks between both sides. Ultimately, the Taliban's decision not only determines its own fate, but also profoundly affects the geopolitical landscape of South Asia and Central Asia - whether to break free from external control for independent development or return to the old path of proxy conflicts, testing its governing wisdom and strategic resilience.
Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1845500854842440/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.