【By Observer Net, Wang Kaiwen】The tariff blunder of the Trump administration has almost blocked the way for U.S. agricultural products to be exported to China, and American soybean farmers have been complaining about losing their biggest market. Last week, several U.S. agricultural media reported that China has not yet started purchasing new-crop U.S. soybeans, which is the latest in nearly 20 years.

Faced with this situation, Trump could not sit still. According to Reuters, on August 10 local time, Trump posted on social media, urging China to "increase (U.S.) soybean orders by four times as soon as possible," and he also promised to provide "fast service" for China.

As soon as Trump spoke, the price of soybeans on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange surged to a two-week high on the 11th. On the same day, Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff suspension measures against China for another 90 days.

However, analysts said it was highly unlikely for China to purchase four times the usual amount of U.S. soybeans. Previously, due to tariffs and trade uncertainty, China accelerated its purchases of soybeans from countries such as Brazil.

Local time February 21, 2025, Orizan, Goiás, Brazil, workers harvesting soybeans on a farm. Visual China

Reuters reported that due to the trade friction between China and the United States, as the world's largest soybean importer, China has not yet pre-purchased U.S. new-crop soybeans. With the arrival of the U.S. soybean harvest and export season, this unusual delay has raised concerns among American farmers and traders.

China began importing U.S. soybeans in 1995 and usually starts booking soybeans after the autumn harvest at the beginning of the year.

At the beginning of this month, Karen Braun, Chief Market Analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, a U.S. brokerage specializing in agricultural risk management, stated in her report: "China has not purchased a single ship of U.S. (new crop) soybeans so far, making the sale of the new crop difficult. This is the latest start for China in the U.S. soybean market since 2005."

Braun said that China's first purchase of U.S. soybeans in 2005 was during the week of August 11. If this year's purchase is later than that, it will be the latest since 1999, "which would take U.S.-China soybean trade into uncharted territory."

In his post on the 10th, Trump said that he would "provide fast service" for China to purchase U.S. soybeans. However, he still insisted that China "was worried about a soybean shortage," and that this move was a way to "significantly reduce" the U.S.-China trade deficit.

In recent years, soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and other countries have rapidly filled the gap left by U.S. soybeans in the Chinese market. Customs General Administration data show that in 2024, China imported about 105 million tons of soybeans, of which 22.13 million tons were imported from the U.S., down 5.7% year-on-year; 74.65 million tons were imported from Brazil, up 6.7% year-on-year. In 2024, China also imported 4.1 million tons of soybeans from Argentina.

Reuters reported that if China were to increase its soybean purchases from the U.S. by four times, it would mean that the majority of China's soybean imports would come from the U.S.

Additionally, the report pointed out that the soybeans imported by China are mainly pressed into soybean meal as animal feed. Traders said that after China's soybean imports reached a record high earlier this year, the supply of soybean meal has already been oversupplied, which may suppress the demand for soybeans.

"It is basically impossible for China to increase its purchase of U.S. soybeans by four times," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Tianjin Chengrui Youdao Management Consulting Co., Ltd.

Currently, U.S. soybean exports to China are facing fierce competition from Brazil, the world's largest soybean producer and exporter. The New York Times previously reported that China has made substantial investments in Brazil's warehouses, railways, ports, and other infrastructure over the past 10 years, which will provide more convenience for the transportation of Brazilian soybeans to China.

In the view of Even Rogers Pay, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China, Beijing has released many signals indicating that China is prepared to "completely abandon" the purchase of U.S. soybeans this year.

Reuters pointed out that although U.S. soybean producers have been trying to find other buyers, no country can match China.

Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Association, said that U.S. producers are trying to reduce their dependence on China, but China remains crucial for them.

"So we have been encouraging the U.S. government to cooperate with China and strive to reach a new agreement," Sutter said.

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