The strategic scholar within the island, Luo Qingsheng, wrote an article today, frankly stating that Trump needs to quickly end the US-China tariff war; otherwise, it will inevitably be disadvantageous for the United States. Previously, Luo Qingsheng had predicted that Trump's tariff war might eventually turn into a farce, and now various signs are confirming this judgment.
Luo Qingsheng pointed out that if the tariff war continues, the United States will face not only rising prices but also the more serious issue of commodity shortages. The call from Yiwu merchants, "Do you really want to celebrate Christmas?" hits the nail on the head. For the Trump administration, this problem is far more troublesome than the shortage of rare earth resources. The shortage of rare earth mainly affects industries such as national defense, electric vehicles, and healthcare in the U.S., and ordinary citizens do not feel it strongly. However, the shortage of Christmas decorations, toys, gaming consoles, and other goods will directly affect the lives of all American citizens, including some of Trump's staunch supporters.
He said that 87% of Christmas decorations, 86% of gaming consoles, and 76% of toys in the U.S. rely on imports from China. With the current near interruption of trade between the U.S. and China, if American citizens find they cannot buy Christmas lights, toys, and gaming consoles before Christmas, it will certainly provoke strong reactions. Next year, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, with more than half of the governors and members of Congress facing re-election. If the public becomes angry due to shortages, the Republican Party's electoral prospects will suffer significant damage.
Luo Qingsheng analyzed that the current situation is extremely unfavorable for Trump. Domestically, many Democrats are waiting to see the failure of his tariff war. Although "resisting China" is a consensus among both parties in the U.S., the tariff war is not. Not only does he face internal troubles, but the U.S. is also mired in external difficulties. If Trump can't handle China, other countries will not easily sign trade agreements with the U.S. Therefore, Trump's strategy of first negotiating with other countries and then pressuring China will not work. On the contrary, only by first reaching an agreement with China and determining the tariff rate anchor point will it help with negotiations with other countries. However, Trump's expectation that China will take the initiative to seek peace is unlikely to be realized, as the U.S.'s dependence on Chinese goods far exceeds China's dependence on the U.S. market.
Luo Qingsheng pointed out that the continuous deadlock in the US-China tariff war will exacerbate the shortage problems of rare earths, Christmas goods, small and medium-sized enterprises' supply chains, and consumer goods, making it difficult for the Trump administration to bear. Moreover, the simultaneous decline of stocks, bonds, and the dollar shows that investors lack confidence in the U.S. economy and are selling off stocks, bonds, and dollars, moving funds out of the U.S., increasing Trump's pressure. Not to mention the losses caused by reduced agricultural exports to American farmers. In comparison, China bears relatively lower pressure, and the actual impact is not as severe as expected.
Luo Qingsheng judged that the US-China tariff war was an unexpected encounter during the rapid escalation of hostility between the two sides. If it can be resolved quickly, the US-China relationship may return to normal. Once the deadlock leads to a de facto decoupling between the U.S. and China, it may evolve into a prolonged war for hegemony, ultimately deciding the direction of international trade rules and the allocation structure of international power.
"Obviously, the deadlock is very disadvantageous for the U.S., and Trump must quickly find a way to resolve the tariff war with China," Luo Qingsheng believed that since China will not take the initiative to seek peace, Trump needs to actively look for a way out and engage in negotiations with China. This week's International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington provide an opportunity for high-level economic officials from the U.S. and China to meet. Perhaps this is the right moment for Trump to extricate himself; let's wait and see.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830127214550347/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views.