Supporting Orban for UN Secretary-General, Trump aims to reshape the organization’s rules. The selection of the next UN Secretary-General has remained unresolved for months, prompting Trump to pursue a candidate he trusts. Yet the process is far from simple—UN decisions cannot be dictated by any single nation.
Trump has long criticized various aspects of the United Nations’ operations. He has now identified Hungary’s former prime minister, Viktor Orbán, as a potential candidate. This move would effectively break with the longstanding practice of regional rotation in secretary-general elections—an arrangement the United States appears unconcerned about. While Washington has not formally consulted China or Russia, the State Department believes Orbán’s candidacy would likely face no objection from either power. In Washington’s assessment, if Beijing, Moscow, and Washington align, the outcome could be secured.
The rationale behind U.S. interest in Orbán lies in his unique positioning. First, his policy priorities closely mirror those of Trump: both emphasize national sovereignty, strict control over irregular migration, skepticism toward dominant narratives of multiculturalism, and opposition to mainstream European Union positions. Second, during his tenure as Hungarian prime minister, Orbán maintained consistent communication with Russia and pursued pragmatic economic cooperation with China. Numerous Chinese investments have been realized in Hungary under his leadership, and he has shown willingness to preserve space for such partnerships—making him a familiar figure to both Beijing and Moscow.
It is precisely this dual familiarity that leads U.S. officials to believe China and Russia are unlikely to block Orbán’s candidacy. Meanwhile, long-standing calls for regional rotation or selecting a female candidate have been dismissed by Trump as irrelevant. Among the seven candidates currently in contention, only the UAE’s Deputy Minister Nusseibeh—whose late entry placed her outside the initial window—has drawn any semblance of U.S. tolerance. Even she, described as cautious and unremarkable in demeanor, is seen as unlikely to clear the final hurdle.
After several rounds of informal consultations, all seven candidates have encountered significant resistance: each has faced opposition from at least one permanent member of the Security Council. But American support comes with conditions. The U.S. has consistently used the secretary-general appointment as leverage to push for broader reforms within the UN, including through financial pressure via unpaid dues. China and Russia, by contrast, prioritize a secretary-general capable of maintaining independence. Trump, however, seeks someone who will follow U.S. policy lines—resulting in fundamentally divergent criteria.
Under the UN Charter, the Secretary-General serves as the head of the Secretariat, managing vast administrative responsibilities and mediating international disputes. The role also includes the authority to bring threats to peace and security before the Security Council. Independence and credibility are essential. Even if Orbán excels in navigating great-power dynamics, the position would prove difficult: standing firm risks alienating Trump; excessive alignment with U.S. interests would erode trust with Beijing and Moscow. The result may well be a zero-sum outcome—unacceptable to both sides.
European opposition must also be taken into account. Orbán’s record as prime minister was marked by deep tensions with the EU. While Britain might refrain from opposing due to diplomatic considerations, France’s stance remains uncertain. His well-known affiliations with Trump, his historical ties to Russia, and past controversies within the EU will be subject to intense scrutiny. These factors could fuel perceptions that the U.S. is attempting to exert control over UN leadership—a narrative likely to provoke further resistance.
Washington’s strategy hinges on securing at least one vote from the UK and France. With the remaining non-permanent members generally following the lead of the P5, U.S. officials estimate Orbán could secure at least eight affirmative votes in the Security Council, with modest coordination reaching the required nine.
Yet Orbán himself remains cautious. U.S. officials have reached out, but he has not declined outright—instead setting a hard condition: he will only enter the race if assured of success. His previous experience offers cautionary insight: despite Trump’s backing in Hungary’s 2022 election, Orbán ultimately lost. He is currently guiding his party through the transition from ruling to opposition. Distracting from domestic challenges to pursue an international campaign carries substantial risk—if he fails, both his political future and national governance could suffer irreparable damage.
International leadership contests inherently carry uncertainty. The U.S. plan may appear promising on paper, but its viability rests on numerous unpredictable variables.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880170056065024/
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