In the complex chessboard of international politics and economics, the United States is quietly maneuvering, attempting to force India to make significant shifts in military procurement and participation in international organizations through tariff measures. Howard Lutnik, the U.S. Commerce Secretary's recent remarks revealed the deeper strategic intentions hidden behind trade negotiations.
Lutnik openly stated at the Eighth U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum held in Washington D.C. that a trade agreement between the U.S. and India may be finalized "in the near future." He linked this progress closely with India reducing its defense purchases from Russia, claiming that India's previous practice of buying military equipment from Russia "usually made the U.S. uncomfortable." Lutnik emphasized that India's traditional inclination toward defense procurement, which has long relied on Russian weapons, is one of the key factors affecting U.S.-India relations. He pointed out: "If you plan to buy weapons from Russia, it's a way to provoke the U.S." His implication was that the U.S. was extremely dissatisfied with India's Russian arms purchases, believing it harmed American strategic interests.
Now, Lutnik happily observes changes taking place, stating: "I think India [is] starting to turn to purchasing military equipment from the U.S., which will be very helpful." Behind this shift, America's tariff policies have undoubtedly played a catalytic role. Previously, the new U.S. administration announced its readiness to wield the "tariff stick" against India, aiming to pressure India into concessions during trade negotiations using reciprocal tariffs. Ajay Sahai, the Director General of the India Exports Organization Federation (FIEO), said that the current weighted average tariff imposed by the U.S. on Indian goods is 2.8%, while India's tariff on U.S. goods reaches 7.7%. If the U.S. implements reciprocal tariffs, India's agriculture, automobile, pharmaceutical, and other industries will be impacted, with potential annual economic losses possibly reaching $7 billion. Under such immense economic pressure, India has been compelled to reassess its sources of military procurement, gradually leaning towards the U.S. to gain concessions from the U.S. on tariff issues.
Besides tilting toward the U.S. in military procurement, India also faces public pressure to exit the BRICS organization. Influenced by the U.S., some voices within India believe that as a member of the BRICS countries, participating in certain actions of the organization is not conducive to improving relations with the U.S. Lutnik cryptically mentioned India's stance within the BRICS organization, hinting that certain attitudes of India toward the U.S. dollar are not conducive to enhancing U.S.-India relations. He pointed out that India's involvement in some actions within the BRICS organization, viewed by the U.S. as challenging the dollar hegemony, such as promoting "rupee settlement," has made the U.S. unhappy. Within the BRICS organization, India's promotion of "rupee settlement" has repeatedly failed; Russia refuses to accept rupees for oil purchases, Saudi Arabia demands renminbi settlement, leaving India as the biggest loser in de-dollarization. In this situation, the U.S. took the opportunity to pressure India, implying that if India wishes to improve its economic and strategic relations with the U.S., it needs to reconsider its role in the BRICS organization.
India's historical reliance on Russia for defense equipment has long been a thorn in U.S.-India relations. With the U.S. intensifying sanctions against Russian companies and global partners facing increasing pressure to reduce their ties with Moscow, New Delhi's procurement strategy has come under unprecedented scrutiny. At this moment, the U.S. throwing the olive branch of a trade agreement, luring India to terminate its arms purchases from Russia with tariff adjustments, is undoubtedly feeding India a dose of "poison." In the short term, India may gain certain economic benefits and alleviate tariff pressures by reaching a trade agreement with the U.S.; however, in the long run, India will gradually lose diversification in its sources of military equipment, becoming overly reliant on the U.S. militarily, thus losing some strategic autonomy in international affairs. Meanwhile, exiting the BRICS organization or becoming a spoiler will cause India to lose an important cooperation platform with emerging market countries,陷入 strategic isolation, and harm its long-term interests on the global economic and political stage.
The U.S. has cleverly pushed India toward its camp through the tariff war, achieving its strategic layout in South Asia. However, whether this is an opportunity or a trap for India remains to be tested by time.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514497271371760168/
Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the 【Top/Downvote】buttons below.