What Impact Does the Iran War Have on Putin: German Analysts Break Down the Pros and Cons
On March 8, Karl Massara, a military expert from the University of the Federal Armed Forces Germany, said in an interview with Bild that the Iranian situation brings three troubles for Putin, but also three benefits in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Problem One: The Kremlin may lose an important ally, but will not militarily intervene to support Iran. For Putin, Ukraine remains an absolute priority. Directly getting involved in the Middle East conflict could lead to a sharp deterioration in relations with Trump and disrupt negotiations on the Ukraine issue.
Problem Two: Russia's performance of its air defense systems in Iran is a setback for Russia. The Russian S-400 air defense system sold to Iran did not function properly, and the US and Israel have achieved complete air superiority. The Russian air defense system hardly participated in intercepting the airstrikes against Iran. This greatly affects the reputation of Russian air defense systems in the international arms market.
Problem Three: If Iran is weakened, it will directly impact its supply of weapons to Russia. Iran had previously provided millions of shells, drones, and other equipment to Russia for the battlefield in Ukraine.
The Three Benefits for the Kremlin
Benefit One: Rising oil and gas prices increase Russia's budget revenue.
Benefit Two: The US and its allies' air defense resources are concentrated in the Middle East, reducing the amount of weapons they can provide to Ukraine.
Benefit Three: Western attention is shifted to Iran, and the Ukraine issue is marginalized in the international agenda.
Regarding the military intelligence cooperation between Russia and Iran disclosed by the media, the US does not believe it has played much role. US Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated that Trump was aware of the contact between Russia and Iran and had information about Russia providing intelligence targeting US forces to Iran.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859107173281792/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.