[By Guancha Observer Network, Liu Chenghui] With the upcoming South Korean presidential election, some people are instigating anti-China protests, while others are concerned about the future of US troops in South Korea.

Despite the US side denying related reports on troop reductions, Hong Kong-based English-language media The South China Morning Post reported on May 27 that analysts said that given the constantly changing US defense priorities, this possibility still exists, which will involve South Korea in a broader Sino-US competition.

In the lead-up to South Korea's new presidential election on June 3, discussions about the possible reduction of US troops stationed in South Korea have caused anxiety in the country. Analysts warn that at a time when regional tensions are escalating, shifts in US defense priorities could reshape the US-South Korean alliance and become the first major test for the next South Korean government.

On May 22, US Department of Defense officials told The Wall Street Journal that the Trump administration is considering moving 4,500 troops from South Korea to Guam or other locations in the Indo-Pacific region.

The report stated that this proposal is part of an informal assessment of US policy toward North Korea and is currently under preparation, not yet submitted for Trump's review, but just one of many options discussed by senior US officials.

However, the Pentagon quickly denied these claims. "The report about the Defense Department cutting the number of US troops stationed in South Korea is untrue," Pentagon chief spokesperson Shawn Parell told The Wall Street Journal. The US remains "firmly committed" to South Korean defense and strengthening the "unbreakable alliance."

Nevertheless, South Korea is already worried. Some analysts warn that such changes could weaken South Korea's deterrence against North Korea and involve the country in a broader Sino-US competition.

On November 20, 2023, on "Korean Kimchi Day," soldiers from the US Forces Korea and volunteers prepared Korean kimchi together. Visual China

In the view of Kim Yoo-soo, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, this report is clearly a "trial balloon" released by the Trump administration to gauge South Korea's reaction.

Kim Yoo-soo stated that the potential reduction reflects the US policy of reducing its global military presence and transferring more regional security responsibilities to allies like South Korea and Japan to address budget deficits.

"The answer lies in the US National Defense Strategy," Kim Yoo-soo said.

Last week, US Secretary of Defense Hackett instructed Deputy Secretary of Defense Colby to begin formulating the 2025 National Defense Strategy. This strategy will prioritize homeland defense, Indo-Pacific deterrence against China, and burden-sharing with allies. In February, the Trump administration requested the Pentagon to cut $5 billion from the next fiscal year's budget and redirect funds to priority projects like the "Golden Dome" missile defense system.

Earlier, US Vice President Vance stated in a speech that America's "absolute dominance era" has ended, and it will adjust its previous nation-building and interventionist foreign policies to focus more on America's "core interests." The US military will avoid becoming embroiled in long-term conflicts.

Since 1953, the US has maintained troops in South Korea, but since his first term, Trump has consistently questioned the necessity of stationing approximately 29,000 troops in South Korea.

South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo reported on May 23 that Trump has repeatedly used the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea as leverage to demand South Korea bear more costs for their maintenance. It was reported that he considered reducing some of the US troops in South Korea during his first term, but this plan was not implemented due to opposition from staff members.

Although speculation about the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea has recurred over the years, analysts say the current geopolitical context is very different.

Kim Yoo-soo pointed out that in 2004, the US had already reduced the number of troops stationed in South Korea from 37,000 to the current 28,500. If further cuts of 4,500 personnel were made, it might involve withdrawing a rotating Stryker Brigade Combat Team, posing serious national defense security issues for South Korea.

Du Zhenhao, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, said that aside from tariff policies, the issue of troop withdrawal will be another "serious challenge" for the incoming South Korean government.

"After the new government takes office, this issue will soon resurface," Du Zhenhao predicted. He noted that the US may bring up this topic before the inauguration of the new South Korean government to gain an advantage in cost-sharing negotiations. He also pointed out that the US might attempt to integrate the troops stationed in South Korea and Japan into a single theater covering the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea, and the Taiwan Strait.

Chung Dong Myung, a spokesperson for the Democratic Party of Korea, downplayed partisan differences regarding the issue of US troops in South Korea last week, stating that their presence is crucial to maintaining peace in Northeast Asia and the broader Pacific region.

He said, "On this point, there is no significant disagreement between the Democratic Party of Korea and the conservative People Power Party, nor any major gap in views between South Korea and the US."

However, People Power Party candidate Kim Moon-soo warned that "the issue of reducing US troops in South Korea is a serious matter directly related to South Korean security. There is growing concern that if Lee Jae-myung becomes president, the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea may become a reality."

Notably, ahead of the elections, recent anti-China protests in South Korea have drawn attention. Many Chinese citizens and ethnic Chinese living in South Korea have expressed they are suffering discrimination from political rhetoric, hate speech on social media, and street harassment. These discriminatory waves against the Chinese community are spiraling upward.

Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea candidate, posted on social media on May 26, outlining his policy commitments in the areas of diplomacy and security. Lee stated that the ROK-US alliance remains the foundation of his foreign policy, but he will also actively repair relations with China.

He said he would prioritize national interests and pursue "pragmatic diplomacy," hoping to repair trust in the ROK-US alliance damaged by illegal martial law after his election. Regarding China, Lee believes that China is a key trading partner for South Korea and plays an important role in the security of the Korean Peninsula. He aims to repair and stabilize the deteriorated relations with China due to the previous administration's missteps.

This article is an exclusive contribution from the Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508946315217338934/

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