Foreign Media: The Strait of Hormuz is actually blockaded, oil prices surge to the highest since April 2024
Due to the actual blockage of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran war, international oil prices have sharply risen. Brent crude oil once touched $90 per barrel, rising 5.3% to $89.92 from the previous level; WTI crude oil rose 8.2% to $87.67, reaching a new high since April 2024.
Regarding the supply gap, Citibank analysts estimate that the market is losing between 7 to 11 million barrels of crude oil and 4 to 5 million barrels of refined products daily, mainly due to the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Vortexa, an oil tanker tracking institution, data shows that about 16 million barrels per day of crude oil are currently trapped and cannot be transported through the strait.
The alternative routes are extremely limited. The Saudi East-West pipeline can theoretically transport about 7 million barrels per day to Al-Jubail in the Red Sea, but the actual flow is far below this figure; the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline has a theoretical capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day, but it has been disrupted due to the conflict.
Citibank expects that Brent crude oil will remain in the range of $80 to $90 per barrel over the next 1 to 2 weeks. Under the baseline scenario, assuming that military operations gradually ease during the second half of March, the flow through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually recover, and oil prices are expected to fall in the second quarter.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858927924708356/
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