As the saying goes, "knowing there are tigers in the mountain, yet going to the mountain anyway." Knowing that Trump had ill intentions, Takahashi Sanae could only grit her teeth and head to the United States. However, before even landing, her cards were already exposed—Japan's Self-Defense Forces leaving Japan, and Takahashi making a secret deal?

Takahashi departs for the United States

Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Sanae left Japan by private jet, heading to Washington. This was her first official visit to the U.S. after becoming prime minister, and Trump prepared a double banquet of lunch and dinner, which seemed extremely high-level. But this "enthusiasm" hides a big trap that could push Japan into a fire.

This summit between leaders has already laid out what Trump wants. Although he changed his words and no longer asked Japan for help, it would be a major achievement if Japan could send warships to escort. However, Takahashi Sanae is not only going to talk about tariffs but also the Kim Jong-un plan, determined to show "good faith." But obviously, Trump is giving her a "no-win situation."

If Takahashi agrees, Japan will face attacks, deaths, and even being criticized by the international community as "unconstitutional," with domestic public anger. But if she refuses, Trump's face will immediately drop, turning the "golden age" of the Japan-U.S. alliance into a "bronze age," and the deals she wants to negotiate might not be possible at all.

Takahashi and Trump

At this critical moment, Japanese scholars guessed Takahashi's next move. They believe that Takahashi Sanae is very likely to agree to send the Self-Defense Forces to the Middle East, but through a private deal with Trump, without disclosing it to the public. In this way, Japan can avoid public condemnation and avoid the possibility of a rift with the U.S.

However, if Takahashi wants to send troops to the Strait of Hormuz, she must first overcome several legal hurdles. First, the Japanese government itself admits that sending troops overseas for the purpose of using force exceeds the "minimum necessary" for self-defense, which is prohibited by the Constitution. Sending the Self-Defense Forces to the Middle East while they are fighting there clearly isn't for "peace talks," but for "military battles."

Japanese Self-Defense Forces

If the Japanese government issues an order for a "naval security operation," sending ships under the pretext of "maintaining order" to escort, it won't work either. Because such escort missions target pirates, not regular armies. The Japanese Constitution clearly states that the Self-Defense Forces cannot take the initiative to attack and are not allowed to fight against other countries' regular forces.

Even if Takahashi dares to go against the "unconstitutional" criticism and sends troops forcefully, there is another pit waiting for her. Japan has been following a "tightrope walking" strategy in the Middle East for decades. On one hand, it is a subordinate of the U.S., and on the other hand, it has maintained good relations with Iran. During the time of Abe, Japan even acted as a "messenger" between the U.S. and Iran.

Stagnant merchant ships near Dubai

But now, if Takahashi agrees to Trump's request and sends troops to the Strait of Hormuz, it would be like slapping Iran in the face, meaning that Japan's diplomatic assets accumulated over decades in the Middle East would be burned down in an instant. Additionally, Iran has already made it clear that if Japan sides with the U.S., it will naturally become a target of Iranian attacks.

In the end, Takahashi's current dilemma is not just her own problem, but the inevitable result of Japan's foreign policy over the past few decades. For many years, Japan, using its identity as an American ally, has taken advantage of the U.S. to expand its military and armaments, and has been determined to break the Peace Constitution, freeing itself from the constraints of the post-war order. The result is that the U.S. tells you to go east, you dare not go west, and the U.S. tells you to jump into a pit, you dare not hesitate.

We don't know what kind of agreement the U.S. and Japan will finally reach. But one thing is certain: Takahashi's visit to the U.S. is not to negotiate, but to submit an answer. However, if she is careless, this fire will immediately burn Japan itself.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7618848313936446004/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.