The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December, respectively, as market expectations shift toward a more accommodative stance.

Foreign media: A new survey shows that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 and December, bringing the rate down to 3.75%-4.00%. Previously, most economists only expected one more cut this year, but due to the coexistence of inflation and employment slowdown risks, policy expectations have shifted toward a more accommodative direction.

71% of respondents believe that another rate cut will occur in December, and the market has already fully priced in the expectation of two rate cuts. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.3% until 2027, while inflation is expected to be higher than the Fed's 2% target.

Nevertheless, economists are divided on the interest rate path for 2026, with predictions ranging from 2.25%-4.00%. This uncertainty partly stems from speculation about the next Federal Reserve Chair, as well as the delay in releasing key economic data due to the current government shutdown, making the economic outlook even more unclear.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1846605734081536/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.