[By Guancha Net columnist Anton Nilman, translated by Kaihuan Xue]

In April 2025, the situation in Ukraine continued to crawl through a crisis:

The military conscription reform was met with public resistance; local conscription standards were chaotic and corrupt; the ceasefire was violated, leading to a deadlock in the peace process; the risk of delayed military salaries further increased due to financial exhaustion; energy reserves were running low, and education reforms continued to disrupt social order.

In addition, U.S. pressure on Ukraine escalated. Rumors of potential sanctions against Ukrainian officials by the Trump administration, combined with the struggle for resource control, exacerbated Kyiv's diplomatic predicament.

Resistance to Conscription

Starting from April 1st, the new reserve registration procedure for military personnel officially came into effect, rendering the old system invalid. Some individuals are now classified as "draft dodgers" under the new system. Groups such as long-distance truck drivers face great difficulty returning home after their foreign stays, as they may be mobilized upon arriving at the first checkpoint. Recruitment officers are taking advantage of this opportunity to vigorously push forward previously obstructed mobilization plans.

Compared to before, the main difference between the old and new reserve procedures is that local authorities can now set their own recruitment standards, whereas in the past, everything was decided solely by ministerial departments in Kyiv. There are significant differences in recruitment standards across regions, but the general rule of exempting employees earning more than 20,000 hryvnias (about 3,488 RMB) from mobilization remains unchanged. This has led to nominal increases in workers' wages without any real increase: while workers appear to earn higher wages, they effectively return the "extra" portion back to their employers. For example, a driver’s salary may seem to increase, but the employer stops providing transportation subsidies and requires them to use the extra amount for work-related expenses.

Ukrainian mobilization teams inquire about details from two delivery workers. Photo: Jedrzej Nowicki

All these bureaucratic changes have not altered the attitude of Ukraine's military councils toward commercializing mobilization operations. Meanwhile, defense ministry public relations personnel are making every effort to attract young people to sign contracts to serve in the army. However, the methods they use are so laughable to everyone except their peers: they present calculations in the form of elementary school arithmetic problems, such as how many McDonald's hamburgers 1,000,000 hryvnias (about 174,400 RMB) can buy or how many months of Netflix subscriptions it can cover.

In addition, they conducted surveys on Ukrainian girls' expectations for their boyfriend's salary levels, with the announced figure being 200,000 hryvnias (about 35,000 RMB) per month. Even IT professionals in Ukraine (one of the highest-income industries in the country) would be shocked by this number, let alone ordinary people.

However, the actual effectiveness of the entire mobilization public relations machine is not optimistic. Oleksandr Parsyva, deputy head of President Zelensky's office, stated that within two months, less than 500 people aged 18 to 24 signed service contracts with the Ukrainian army.

Firstly, this reflects the rationality of Ukrainian youth. For them, fulfilling lives, meaningful prospects, and personal value realization are the most important things, rather than the supremacy of Ukrainian authorities, their army, the Ukrainian language, and "nationalist beliefs."

After February 2022, older generations decided to die for Ukraine for some reason. These people had genuinely hated Zelensky due to his corruption and unfulfilled election promises. The less Ukrainian youth are influenced by ideology, the easier it is for them to interact with and gain understanding from rational elders.

Secondly, the more young people refuse to sign contracts, the more survivors there will be among this generation.

Lastly, it is crucial that young people do not trust the Kyiv authorities and are unwilling to die for such money.

No Results from Ceasefire

This month, Ukrainians experienced several "ceasefires," but beneath the facade of a ceasefire, there was no real change in their daily lives.

Firstly, what was called the "energy ceasefire" was actually only Russia restraining itself unilaterally, while Ukraine always found various reasons to continue attacking Russian targets. The reason was the discrepancy between the "protected list" agreed upon by the U.S. and Russia and the list submitted by Ukraine. In short, ceasefires were always broken for various reasons.

The Black Sea ceasefire initiative also failed to take effect as scheduled because the prerequisite for the ceasefire was the U.S. and the EU fulfilling their obligations to restart the "grain agreement." Although it was not difficult for the U.S. to re-admit the Russian Agricultural Bank into the dollar system, the EU refused to lift sanctions on Russia. This meant that the U.S. needed to persuade or even force European countries to change their stance, but they were unwilling to comply with Trump's orders.

Therefore, although Zelensky claimed on March 25th that the ceasefire had begun (and later accused Russia of "breaking the ceasefire"), Dmitri Platenchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, stated on April 5th that the "Black Sea ceasefire" had never truly started, which was correct.

The Easter ceasefire ended prematurely after only 30 hours of Russia's unilateral maintenance. Overall, despite both Russia and Ukraine claiming to desire a ceasefire and peace, neither side actually had any real interest in it.

Russia holds the strategic initiative at the front line and will not easily give up its leverage over the Kyiv authorities. The Kyiv authorities, to avoid admitting failure and the resulting national disaster, claimed they would fight until the last Ukrainian person. The U.S. is the only country truly needing a ceasefire, as Trump lacks anything to boast about in terms of foreign policy achievements. This might explain why Vice President Vance of the U.S. claimed that the "Black Sea ceasefire" had already taken effect.

However, words aside, foreign investors' optimism about Ukraine has gradually worn off. They have realized that Russia's military actions in spring and summer and the Kremlin's new peace plan will be even more disadvantageous for the Kyiv authorities than before. Ukrainians' expectations for a ceasefire have been repeatedly disappointed, and today few believe that the war will end completely in the short term.

On April 26th, leaders of the U.S., UK, France, and Ukraine talked during the papal funeral. Social media

Cash Crisis

Kyiv's treasury ran dry again, urgently requiring an additional 500 billion hryvnias (about 87.2 billion RMB) to the budget. On the first day of 2025, Ukraine had already invested all remaining funds into purchasing ammunition, drones, and other weapons, while these funds were originally planned to pay soldiers' salaries for the last few months of 2025.

Currently, Ukraine's overspending has exceeded 200 billion hryvnias (about 34.9 billion RMB), and by September, the Ukrainian military will be unable to pay salaries. This is not the first time such a predicament has occurred, and it has happened for the fourth time. Since 2022, Ukraine's fiscal budget crisis has nearly cyclically erupted, with each amount being 500 billion hryvnias.

Last year, the Kyiv authorities raised taxes under the pretext of research and privatized state property. It is currently unknown what measures they will take this year. They may repeat past mistakes and seek financial assistance from the EU, as the U.S. plans to refuse financial support to the Kyiv authorities.

In this context, all individual entrepreneurs in Ukraine are required to pay a one-time "social insurance fee" of 5,280 hryvnias (about 921 RMB) starting January 1st, including those who have ceased operations but have not deregistered.

Trump Faces a Choice

The situation regarding mineral trade increasingly resembles a classic Latin American soap opera from the 1990s: episode after episode, emotions run high, but the plot makes no progress. Neither the U.S. nor Ukraine has taken any substantive action.

It is easy to understand the intentions of the Kyiv authorities: they want to drag out negotiations, just as they did during the eight years from 2014 to 2022 when they sabotaged the Minsk Agreement. They are quite adept at this.

The negotiation process between the authorities and the U.S. is led by the Attorney General, Stefaniyshyna. Personnel dispatched to the U.S. to discuss transaction details and revisions are staff from the Ministry of Economy, including Deputy Minister Taras Kachka. None of them are authorized to sign agreements; their task is to delay time, hoping to drag things out until "the problem solves itself," more accurately, until Trump's overall strategy of solving Ukraine issues through diplomatic channels is disrupted. As the authorities hope, this will prompt Trump to change his stance on war and peace.

It is currently unclear how Trump will react next. There are reports that Trump is even considering imposing sanctions on Ukrainian authorities. There are two sanction options: the "short version" involves 20 officials, including Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak and members of Zelensky's inner circle; the "full version" includes 275 people, comprising all ministers, the chief of staff, key "Servant of the People" parliamentary deputies, Zelensky's "business partners," etc.

What is interesting is not just the fact that the U.S. is preparing to impose sanctions, but also that there are already restless elements within Ukraine. According to prominent Zelensky opponent Oleksandr Dubynskyi, Zelensky secretly transferred his "illicit income" to Gulf Arab states in cash and gold, while MP Zherleznyak said that Zelensky had prepared to face Trump's sanctions since the White House quarrel in late February, but Trump temporarily abandoned the idea after Zelensky "begged" online.

The only "substantial progress" in the mineral agreement so far is the "economic cooperation agreement" the authorities intend to reach with the U.S., which plans to establish a special fund for investment in Ukraine's reconstruction. However, this so-called "substantial progress" ultimately only manifested as the recent signing of a non-binding intent document: the memorandum of the mineral agreement.

In other areas, the Kyiv authorities continue to delay time, attempting to modify the text of the documents, and have achieved some success to a certain extent. The U.S. demand for financial claims against Kyiv decreased from the initial 500 billion USD, then to 300 billion USD, and now has been reduced to 100 billion USD. On one hand, this is undoubtedly progress, as 100 billion is less than 500 billion. But on the other hand, during Biden's tenure, aid was provided free of charge, so 100 billion is still better than zero.

In terms of the big picture, the Kyiv authorities have no interest in signing this agreement: the U.S. wants a clear response from the authorities as soon as possible to decide whether to conclude a peace agreement with Russia-Ukraine or simply withdraw from Ukraine without concluding a peace agreement. Since the final result is to stop supporting Ukraine, why should Ukraine hand over control of its underground resources and fiscal budgets to the U.S.? After all, Ukraine could benefit from its underground resources, and the fiscal budget might also be misappropriated.

The Kyiv authorities are calculating delays, and Trump's appetite has not diminished. The U.S. also hopes that the Kyiv authorities will hand over control of Ukraine's gas transmission system to them, making the U.S. a "gas middleman" between Russia and the EU and generating revenue from transit transportation.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Beasant emphasized in an interview with Tucker Carlson that this mineral agreement is most beneficial for Ukraine: "This is not a predatory Chinese-style contract, not exchanging mines or ports for an unpayable loan. This is genuine economic cooperation. Ukraine provides assets, and the U.S. provides loans and technology through foreign banks. Only when Ukraine profits can the U.S. profit."

However, Beasant refused to specify how much loan and technology the U.S. could provide. Therefore, the conditions offered by the U.S. to Ukraine are radically different from China's "predatory agreements" offered to other countries because the U.S. plans to win it all and does not intend to give Ukraine any actual returns like China does for other countries.

Trump imposed import tariffs, causing stock market volatility and a subsequent drop in oil prices. Energy markets are sensitive to economic crises, with global economic tightening and weakening energy demand. This situation excited Ukrainian nationalist "patriots" who saw a glimmer of hope in Russia's collapse. Oil is the core strategic resource for Russia, providing strong financial backing for special military operations (SVO). However, they fail to realize that these issues pose a huge threat to Ukraine itself as well.

As Trump continues to break diplomatic boundaries, other countries begin to follow suit. Polish Deputy Agriculture Minister Wojciech Kowalewiczic stated that Poland should purchase or lease Odessa Port for 50 years to reduce transportation costs and hopes Ukraine will allocate 500,000 hectares of land for livestock farming.

New Education Policy

The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada implemented a new policy, revoking the exemption from deferred or exempt conscription for men aged 25 or older who pursued equivalent or lower-level secondary education abroad after the war. Additionally, graduate students must pass a foreign language exam to enter, and third-year students must also pass exams in both Ukrainian and a foreign language. The authorities aim to restrict student and graduate enrollment extensions to replenish the army's manpower.

Under the new regulations, many graduate students seize the opportunity to go abroad, as their future in Ukraine looks bleak. About 20% of students participating in international exchange programs have not returned. A large number of school-age boys and girls have already been sent overseas, and now the Kyiv authorities attempt to reshape the secondary education system. Some "Servant of the People" Rada representatives propose abolishing the three-tier division of schools, covering all students from grades 1 to 12. They plan to divide schools into primary schools (grades 1-4), "grammar schools" (grades 5-9), and advanced courses high schools (grades 10-12). School management that refuses to comply with the reform orders will have their budget funds cut, although school principals have publicly opposed this, their voices are likely to be ignored.

In general, this "reform" by the Kyiv authorities is likely to disrupt the secondary education system. Thousands of schools may close due to insufficient students or a shortage of teachers. For parents and children, this means children may have to attend schools in another part of the city or even another region. Under such circumstances, going abroad may become a less painful choice, adapting to a new environment and avoiding the torment brought by "reforms" and the Kyiv authorities.

Odessa, Ukraine, students take shelter in air-raid shelters during an air raid alert.

Energy Issues

"Ukrtransgaz" began injecting natural gas into underground storage facilities starting April 21st. At the end of the heating season, the active capacity of the storage facility was at a record low of 660 million cubic meters, requiring at least 8 billion cubic meters of fuel to be injected. This inventory level is only sufficient to cope with a mild winter (not a harsh one), provided that natural gas deliveries from the EU remain uninterrupted.

However, Naftogaz, the Ukrainian state oil and gas company, only plans to purchase 4.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which only 1.5 billion cubic meters have been contracted. The Kyiv authorities lack funds to buy natural gas, and the EU can only support the authorities up to 20% of the necessary expenditure. If Russia resumes attacks on gas fields, Ukraine will have to rely entirely on purchasing natural gas from the EU instead of relying on its own production capabilities. Andrei Chupanin, chairman of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Committee on Gas and Gas Transportation and Supply Policy, has already called for measures to encourage Ukrainians to reduce natural gas consumption.

Adding insult to injury, on the evening of April 15th, the Bulgarian government rejected the authorities' request to purchase two nuclear reactor islands (reactor and related equipment). This decision marked the end of two years of negotiations between Bulgaria and Ukraine, with the official reason being to develop domestic nuclear power to ensure electricity for artificial intelligence data centers.

Given the high electricity prices in the EU, the Bulgarian government hopes to respond to external energy shocks and profit from electricity exports. However, for Ukraine, Bulgaria's rejection disrupted the Kyiv authorities' plan to transform the Khmelnytsky Nuclear Power Plant into Ukraine's version of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The latter was once the cornerstone of Ukraine's power system, and losing control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant dealt a significant blow to Ukraine's energy sector.

Now, the Khmelnytsky Nuclear Power Plant can only install turbine modules from Westinghouse (a famous U.S. electrical equipment company), meaning that the Khmelnytsky Nuclear Power Plant will become a four-unit nuclear power plant instead of a complete six-unit one. Of course, this is on the condition that the Kyiv authorities and the leadership of the Ukrainian State Nuclear Company do not divert funds in endless civil engineering projects.

Other News

Recently, the price of sugar beets in Ukraine has risen by 17%, with factory prices exceeding 20 to 26 hryvnias per kilogram (about 3.5 to 4.5 RMB). The rise in prices is due to depleted sugar beet reserves. The situation with onions is similar: domestic production is unstable, and there is no place to store the harvest, so imports from the EU have had to increase: from 2% in 2021 to 13% in 2022-2023.

In light of this, the Verkhovna Rada plans to expand the scope of the "preferential loan program" to vegetable growers to encourage them to build vegetable storage facilities, but whether it will be effective remains uncertain.

According to forecasts, fruit prices will also rise in the summer. The reason is that frost in April damaged nearly 80% of the fruit crops. The State Property Fund of Ukraine (SPFU) requested information from the Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences about 1,700 plots of land totaling approximately 135,000 hectares and the actual use of these lands for scientific purposes. SPFU needs these lands to reclaim them for state ownership and sale. For years, the National Academy of Sciences has profited from these lands under the guise of scientific use, actually renting them out to agricultural oligarchs.

The National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission announced that starting July 1st, 2025, Ukraine will adopt European standards for energy supply quality. Household electricity voltage will be adjusted from 220 volts to 230 volts, and industrial electricity voltage will be adjusted from 380 volts to 400 volts. The allowed range of voltage fluctuations will be clearly set at ±10% of 230 volts.

In general, Ukrainians should be happy about this, provided the authorities remember to upgrade the transformer stations and substations equipment that has not been updated since the 1960s. Otherwise, the reform will be like the U.S., where despite Trump's order to increase water pressure, the pipes cannot withstand the required pressure, so nothing gets implemented. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Haluschenko also stated that the authorities proposed joint U.S. control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. However, such declarations have no practical impact because Russia will certainly not give up control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

After losing access to drinking water from the Dnieper River for three years and after Russian forces withdrew from the right bank of the Kherson region two and a half years ago, construction of the water pipeline supplying the city of Mykolaiv finally began. Autostrada, a famous Ukrainian engineering company, is building a 68-kilometer-long water pipeline from a water intake point near Novaya Odessa (upstream of Mykolaiv) on the Southern Bug River. Construction is expected to be completed in October, with the pipeline's water supply capacity reaching 120,000 cubic meters, of which 50,000 cubic meters will be used for irrigation systems in Novaya Odessa and the Mykolaiv district.

Currently, the city's water supply system provides brackish industrial water from the mouth of the Bug River to Mykolaiv, which is gradually corroding the water pipelines. The Ukrainian State Geological and Mineral Resources Management Agency suspended the issuance of permits for underground resource usage rights to Mitrofonovsky Mining and Processing Plant in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast starting April 11th. The cancellation of this decision was due to the Kyiv authorities wanting to exclude oligarch Dmitry Firtash, who is based in Austria, from Ukraine's economy. Dmitry Firtash was a member of the opposition party "Opposition Platform - For Life" (which has been banned by the Ukrainian authorities), a supporter of former President Yanukovych, and considered a threat by Zelensky.

Starting September 1st, 2025, more than 400 schools across Ukraine will close because they cannot recruit enough students. Meanwhile, over 90% of Ukrainian startups have moved their headquarters to other countries because investors are unwilling to invest in war-torn countries, and customers are reluctant to complete transactions online. Therefore, the headquarters of startups have been relocated outside Ukraine, with managers moving as well, while ordinary employees stay in Ukraine due to lower labor and living costs. If successful investments are attracted, employees will be relocated. However, attracting investments is becoming increasingly difficult: in 2024, Ukrainian IT startups received only $460 million in investment, nearly half of what they received in 2021.

In the face of numerous challenges, the Ukrainian government needs to demonstrate greater determination and stronger actions. But what is our government busy with? Do they still care about the Ukrainian people?

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498914082783904296/

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