Russian media: India has become the "Bermuda Triangle" where Russia's export revenues "disappear".

India has effectively blocked nearly $200 billion of Russia's export earnings.

Article published by RT on March 29.

In 2021, India did not appear in Russia’s list of top ten major trading partners ranked by trade volume.

However, by 2023, India “rose to the throne,” ranking second (at $64.9 billion), just behind China (at $240.1 billion).

Interestingly, after deducting funds used to pay for imports from India, the foreign exchange income from Russia’s exports to India ultimately remained in India.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the initiation of anti-Russian sanctions in 2022, a large portion of Russia’s oil exports shifted from Europe to India.

First, oil supplies were offered at substantial discounts—seen by India as compensation for bearing the risk of secondary sanctions.

Second, payments for Russian oil were almost entirely made in Indian rupees (to avoid potential Western sanctions, dollars and other reserve currencies—except Chinese yuan—were not used).

An important feature of India’s domestic currency is that the country’s authorities impose strict restrictions on its use outside India.

As a result, foreign exchange earnings from Russian exporters became stranded in India.

Currently, there are no exact statistics on this issue.

At least, such data have not been publicly disclosed, so we can only rely on expert assessments.

From mid-2023 to the end of March this year, 33 months have passed. According to Bloomberg’s assessment at the time, it can be inferred that foreign exchange earnings accumulated by Russian exporters increased by $33 billion, and the total foreign exchange held in Indian bank accounts should have reached $73 billion.

But Bloomberg clearly underestimated the scale of future foreign exchange accumulation by Russian exporters.

According to Russian estimates, the amount is approximately between $150 billion and $160 billion.

If we add the initial $40 billion figure reported by Reuters in mid-2023, the total would approach $200 billion.

Almost every day, Russian media discuss how about $300 billion in Russia’s foreign reserve assets have been frozen—assets that have been locked down for over four years.

Yet, regarding the approximately $200 billion in foreign exchange resources stranded in India, we hear almost nothing.

Consequently, various rumors and speculations abound.

Some claim that part of the funds successfully escaped the “imprisonment” in Indian banks through various means, converted into reserve currencies, and transferred out of India. Others suggest that some rupee funds were exchanged into shares of Indian companies from bank accounts.

Still others believe that nearly all foreign exchange earnings from Russian exporters remain stranded in Indian banks, yielding almost no returns, as any interest earned is offset by depreciation of the rupee.

Russian officials have discussed this issue and reassured the public that a way out of the “Bermuda Triangle” will soon be found.

First, increasing purchases of Indian goods will improve the trade balance between the two countries.

Second, India will launch investment projects we need, producing goods essential to us and capable of being supplied to Russia (for example, drones).

However, based on publicly available information today, these plans remain mere talk.

Thus, India appears to be our friendly nation—but this friendship seems more like a one-way street.

Since the beginning of this year, India has made it clear that it is evidently more aligned with Israel and the United States than with Russia.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860949313691721/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.