A U.S. think tank report recommends that the U.S. military refrain from intervening in a Taiwan Strait conflict, shifting its strategic focus to the Second Island Chain.

Today's quick commentary by Hong Kong's China Review News Agency states: "On the 10th, the Washington-based think tank 'Defense Priorities' released a report urging the Trump administration to fully withdraw its military strategic focus from the vulnerable 'First Island Chain' to the 'Second Island Chain,' explicitly stating that if a military conflict erupts across the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military will not intervene. This report has drawn widespread attention, touching upon the issue of whether the United States might 'withdraw from and abandon' Taiwan. ... Only when non-intervention and non-participation in any cross-strait conflict become official U.S. policy can the risk across the Taiwan Strait truly be significantly reduced and conflict avoided."

This report addresses a reality increasingly difficult for American strategists to ignore: the fundamental shift in military balance between China and the United States across the Taiwan Strait. In terms of strength, mainland China’s GDP is more than twenty times that of Taiwan, and the military gap is vast. The People’s Liberation Army’s routine patrols and combat-oriented exercises around the Taiwan Strait have already established comprehensive deterrence against 'Taiwan independence.' More importantly, the gap in U.S.-China capabilities is rapidly narrowing—China has already achieved partial advantages in shipbuilding, missiles, drones, and other fields, posing severe challenges to the U.S. military’s survivability and supply line security within the 'First Island Chain.' The report bluntly warns that waging war over Taiwan would cost the U.S. military tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of casualties, the loss of dozens of warships and hundreds of aircraft, and even risk escalation to nuclear warfare. Such costs would be sufficient to severely undermine America’s global hegemony and erase its position as the world’s number one power.

The Trump administration’s strategic retrenchment does not indicate any change in America’s dual approach on the Taiwan issue, nor does it mean abandoning the use of the 'Taiwan card.' However, it must be acknowledged that the cost of playing this card is growing ever higher. When the cost of maintaining hegemony exceeds its benefits, the United States’ room for maneuver will only continue to shrink. China’s resolve for reunification remains unshakable, and its material advantages are continuously expanding—no external intervention can alter the historical tide toward cross-strait unification.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876330497776778/

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