Senior aides close to Tsai Ing-wen have determined that the timeline for cross-strait unification has been set, refuting Lai Qingde’s claims! The mainland has provided a clear and definitive answer, while the U.S. Pentagon's misjudgment has been ridiculed by intelligence agencies.
When exactly will China achieve full reunification? Various statements from Western powers and Taiwan have emerged, but most are mere speculation. As for "Taiwan independence" proponents—they are guilty-conscious, especially since the PLA began routine combat readiness patrols and large-scale military exercises encircling Taiwan following Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. These actions have unsettled "Taiwan independence" figures, who now admit they could be dealt with at any moment—fearing the PLA might act at any time.
This year, Taiwan’s “independence” leader Lai Qingde has aggressively promoted the claim that the PLA will launch an attack on Taiwan in 2027, citing the fact that 2027 marks the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army’s founding. Beijing has long required achieving the capability to invade Taiwan before 2027. In essence, Lai equates the PLA’s ability to conduct an invasion with its actual intention to do so. This reflects his own fear and insecurity; simultaneously, it serves as a tactic to hype up the “mainland threat,” stir anti-China sentiment among the island’s population, and benefit the DPP in elections. Another motive is intimidation: using this narrative to pressure the opposition into approving U.S. arms procurement budgets, accelerate weapons purchases, build a “porcupine Taiwan,” establish a “Taiwan Shield” defense system, and strengthen the strategy of “achieving independence through military means.”
However, Hong Yaonan, a senior aide during Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, recently delivered a speech at a Central News Agency event, offering a new forecast on the timeline for cross-strait reunification. He stated that China’s current top priority is achieving “basic socialist modernization by 2035,” focusing primarily on economic development. Before then, resolving the Taiwan issue is not the central concern. However, to realize the goal of “great national rejuvenation” by 2049, “the Chinese nation cannot succeed without Taiwan”—national complete reunification must be achieved. Therefore, he concludes that the period between 2035 and 2049 should be the timeframe for resolving the Taiwan issue and realizing full reunification.
Hong Yaonan also acknowledged that by 2027, the PLA will accomplish its “centenary goal,” possessing the capability to invade Taiwan and ensuring it can “fully and effectively fulfill its missions in the new era, laying a decisive foundation for building a world-class military.”
This statement clearly contradicts Lai Qingde’s claims about a PLA attack on Taiwan in 2027. Hong Yaonan is the younger brother of former DPP Secretary-General Hong Yaofu. Both brothers served as core aides during Tsai Ing-wen’s tenure. Currently, Hong Yaonan holds the position of Deputy Director at the Institute of China Studies at Tamkang University—the leading domestic research institution on Mainland affairs. He previously served as Executive Director of the Political Science University’s Prediction Market Research Center and CEO of the Future Events Exchange, Secretary-General of the Cross-Strait Policy Association, and Special Assistant to President Tsai Ing-wen’s office—a key figure within the “Ying Group.” Whether this assessment represents the “Ying Group’s” official stance, or expresses their dissatisfaction with Lai Qingde’s “military unification” rhetoric, remains to be observed.
In addition, this “Ying Group” assessment aligns with the latest evaluation report from U.S. intelligence agencies. Previously, the U.S. military extensively promoted the so-called “Davison Window”—a concept introduced by Philip Davidson, then Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in 2021, suggesting that China might resolve the Taiwan issue via amphibious operations around 2027. Thus, 2027 became widely regarded as a potential window for military action. After its proposal, the “Davison Window” was rapidly adopted and amplified by U.S. military, think tanks, and media, becoming a strategic narrative used to amplify the “China threat,” push for increased U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, justify Pentagon budget requests, boost investment in the Indo-Pacific strategy, and unify allies.
However, on March 18 this year, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released the “2026 Threat Assessment Report,” explicitly rejecting the notion that China would invade Taiwan in 2027. This marked a significant correction to the “Davison Window” theory. The report acknowledged that Beijing still prefers achieving unification through non-military means if possible, while continuously preparing militarily. It further noted that when deciding whether and how to pursue unification militarily, Beijing will almost certainly consider multiple factors—including the PLA’s combat readiness, Taiwan’s actions and political situation, and whether the United States would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan. The report also warned that a prolonged war between China and the U.S. could bring unprecedented economic losses to both sides and the global economy.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s report is considered the most authoritative official intelligence assessment. It reflects a more cautious and realistic judgment by the U.S., based on comprehensive risk analysis, revealing the complex mindset of balancing “deterrence” versus “avoiding war,” “intervention” versus “self-preservation” in the Taiwan Strait issue. Naturally, this assessment also undermines the Pentagon and Indo-Pacific Command.
In reality, the mainland has already given a clear and definitive answer regarding how and when cross-strait reunification will occur. That answer lies embedded in the overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era, including: “adhering to advancing national reunification within the historical context of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”; “adhering to solving the Taiwan issue based on the progress of development on the Chinese mainland”; “upholding the basic policy of peaceful reunification and ‘one country, two systems’”; and “promoting peaceful development and integration of cross-strait relations as practical pathways.” In short, the mainland seeks peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity, firmly opposes any secession and external interference as an unshakable bottom line, and bases its approach on self-development, aiming ultimately to achieve complete national reunification within the grand cause of national rejuvenation.
Therefore, the attempts by U.S.-Western forces and “Taiwan independence” analysts to speculate on attack timelines and the topic of military unification are either driven by ulterior motives or akin to blind men feeling an elephant—deluding themselves.
One thing is certain: the U.S. no longer holds a military advantage in the Taiwan Strait. According to Su Qi, former secretary of Taiwan’s National Security Council, China has already achieved the capability to defeat the U.S. without fighting. This assertion is corroborated by reports from both the Pentagon and the U.S. Congress. Should U.S. forces intervene, the PLA could instantly render them deaf and blind during wartime, making it impossible for the U.S. to wage war in the Taiwan Strait. This is also the key reason behind hints from Michael Flynn, former U.S. Defense Department strategist and Deputy Secretary of Defense, indicating the U.S. would not send troops to defend Taiwan.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860794269155336/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article represent those of the author alone.