[By Guancha Net Columnist Zhang Zhonglin]
In April 2025, the Trump administration launched a large-scale tariff war against almost all countries and regions globally, from China to remote islands inhabited only by penguins, all of which were involved. There is currently no sign of it stopping, and as a result, the trend of de-globalization has emerged.
During this process, the global aviation industry, which heavily relies on globalization, has inevitably suffered a severe blow. And American airlines, at the center of the tariff storm, are undoubtedly the most severely affected.
Airlines in the Eye of the Storm
Under the impact of the global tariff war, American airlines mainly face three problems: a sharp reduction in international flight demand, rising operating costs, and new aircraft delivery issues.
As a typical representative of major U.S. airlines, Delta Air Lines immediately withdrew its 2025 full-year earnings guidance after Trump initiated the tariff war, stating that the tariff war would affect flight bookings and annual flight performance expectations. This is not Delta Air Lines criticizing Trump; instead, major U.S. airlines, led by Delta, have indeed been impacted.
Delta Air Lines. Photo: Delta official website
Taking 2024's operational data as an example, Delta's international passenger traffic accounts for 13% of total passenger traffic, yet its international passenger revenue makes up 25% of total revenue. Among international routes, the transatlantic route with Europe contributes to 60% of international passenger revenue. Considering the close economic ties between the U.S. and Europe, this figure is not surprising, as the U.S.-Europe route is a highly profitable golden route.
However, with Trump launching a "war" globally, the tariff war targets also include EU countries, which were once intimate allies. This has caused a noticeable decline in air passenger services between the U.S. and Europe. Delta Air Lines' summer U.S.-Europe route reservations have already decreased by 13% compared to the same period, and business travelers have fallen more directly. It's not just the U.S.-Europe routes that are affected; there are also declines in U.S.-Asia and U.S.-South America routes.
Although there is currently no direct operational data showing the impact, the second-quarter report will undoubtedly see a significant decline in international route revenue. Moreover, the aviation industry is a capital-intensive sector with high fixed costs and low profit margins. Therefore, when the most profitable international routes encounter problems, the financial situation becomes difficult. If the tariff war continues, making a profit for the entire year will likely be nothing more than a dream.
For Delta, the trouble is not limited to the reduction in international passenger traffic. The tariff war has significantly increased airline operating costs, with aviation materials being the key factor. In this round of the tariff war, the U.S. imposed a 25% steel and aluminum tax on Canada, Mexico, and the EU, and most aircraft aviation materials fall into this category. Due to the original supply chain layout, these materials are mostly imported from overseas. In this trade war, the tariff cost increase for aviation materials is passed down step by step to the end users, ultimately borne by U.S. airlines and reflected in passenger fares.
Of course, the current rise in costs due to the tariff war accounts for about 1-2% of the total cost for airlines. For airlines, this is a short-term additional cost that can be absorbed without transferring it to passenger fares. However, if the tariff war persists (for example, over a 3-5 year timeframe), then due to factors such as rising tariffs on aircraft aviation materials and price increases, it will inevitably lead to a 5-10% increase in ticket prices, all thanks to President Trump's "benefits" for the American people.
For U.S. airlines, led by Delta, the most fatal issue is the disruption of their aircraft introduction plans.
For airlines, to maintain fleet size and sufficient capacity, they need to continuously introduce new aircraft. Due to the extremely long industrial chain and global division of labor in aircraft manufacturing, this industry is severely affected by this wave of de-globalization.
As mentioned earlier, the tariff war has caused a 20% increase in the cost of aviation materials. However, the real problem is not the price increase but the prolonged cycle or even the suspension of supply. Boeing is one of the companies most affected by supply chain disruptions. With production already constrained by the supply chain, the addition of the tariff war has made deliveries even more distant. What used to take six months to receive now takes over a year.
Although Boeing aircraft are hindered by production capacity, the final price is less affected by the tariff war because the assembly is done in the U.S. Airbus, on the other hand, will "enjoy" a 20% tariff treatment. For aircraft purchases that often run into hundreds of millions of dollars, going from 0% to 20% tariffs means each aircraft suddenly incurs tens of millions of dollars in extra costs, all borne by U.S. airlines.
This is a complete "misfortune" for airlines. As a result, Delta Air Lines publicly stated that it would not bear any additional tariffs for purchasing aircraft and suspended its 2025 aircraft introduction plan. Of course, since half of Delta's fleet consists of Airbus aircraft, it was significantly affected; other airlines were affected differently. For instance, Southwest Airlines, which operates an all-Boeing fleet, only needs to consider whether Boeing can deliver planes on time.
U.S. airlines have been severely affected in this round of the tariff war. Naturally, Boeing hasn't fared well either.
Difficult Times for Boeing
According to Bloomberg reports, the Chinese government has requested domestic airlines to suspend the acceptance of Boeing aircraft, calling it a countermeasure against the U.S. tariff war. There is currently no clear confirmation of such a request, but even without this requirement, domestic airlines would not continue accepting Boeing aircraft under the current circumstances.
Since the Trump administration launched the tariff war, China has imposed a retaliatory tariff of 125% on products originating from the United States. Since Boeing aircraft are assembled entirely in the U.S., all Boeing aircraft exported to China fall within the 125% tariff range. This has made the price of introducing Boeing aircraft into domestic airlines skyrocket to an astonishing level, far beyond what Chinese airlines can afford. In other words, even without political considerations, domestic airlines cannot economically accept Boeing aircraft.
There are already reports in the industry that some airlines have refused to accept Boeing 787-9 aircraft originally scheduled for recent deliveries. Of course, this has also led to some amusing incidents: the tariff war has caused a sharp increase in the price of Boeing aircraft, driving up the price of second-hand Boeing aircraft as well. As a result, the value of 10 Boeing 787-9 aircraft originally listed for sale by China Southern Airlines suddenly skyrocketed.
Photo source: China Southern Airlines official website
The procurement of Boeing aircraft by China is often closely related to geopolitical relations between China and the U.S.
During President Trump's first term, during his visit to China, a massive order worth 300 Boeing passenger aircraft was signed. However, with the outbreak of the trade war at that time, the actual number of orders fulfilled from these 300 Boeing aircraft was almost zero, with very few new orders added after 2019, only fulfilling previous backlog orders.
After叠加 the 737MAX scandal and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the reception of backlog aircraft was completely suspended, with the highest number of backlog aircraft reaching approximately 150, putting immense inventory pressure on Boeing and forcing it to seek re-sales of inventory aircraft. Only starting in 2024 did the reception of backlog aircraft gradually resume, reducing the backlog to below 90, with plans to receive at least 44 Boeing aircraft in 2025, most of which are backlog Boeing 737MAX.
Now, the arrival of the tariff war has once again pressed the pause button for receiving aircraft, and it is unclear when it will resume. Calculating based on the million-dollar list price of Boeing aircraft, this represents a revenue gap of billions of dollars and additional inventory backlog of dozens of aircraft. Most of these aircraft are parked on the tarmac at Boeing's Seattle factory. If Chinese airlines do not accept them, these aircraft will either remain in storage or need to find other buyers. Experience over the past few years shows that it is not easy for Boeing to find new buyers for unsold aircraft, often requiring discounted sales or modifications, which incur additional costs.
What makes Boeing even more heartbroken is that after finally resuming deliveries at the end of 2023 and seeing the light of returning to the Chinese market, the tariff war has once again closed the door, leaving no room for compromise. In 2018, Boeing aircraft accounted for half of China's civil aviation fleet, but by 2025, it had dropped to 40%, still based on the massive existing fleet of Boeing aircraft in China. If calculated based on new aircraft introduced in 2024, Boeing's penetration rate in the Chinese market is only 26%.
If the tariff war continues in the long term, leading to a prolonged cessation of purchases and receptions, Boeing will face a continuous loss of market share in China, and it is not impossible for its market share to drop to single digits. Because airlines value the sustainability of aircraft operations and the reliability of supply, if the uncertainty of Boeing aircraft in China increases due to political factors, airlines will inevitably reassess future procurement strategies and adjust their fleet structure to permanently reduce the proportion of Boeing aircraft. Then, the cooperative relationship Boeing has established with Chinese airlines over the decades will gradually "zero out."
Photo source: Boeing official website
Of course, Boeing's troubles are not limited to the inevitable split due to both economic and political factors in the Chinese market. Boeing's proud global supply chain is also facing tremendous challenges.
To manufacture an aircraft, it involves millions of parts, thousands of suppliers at levels one to three, and dozens of countries. Aircraft manufacturing is the best illustration of the barrel effect: even if you have millions of other components, lacking even a few relatively unimportant ones means you can't finish building the aircraft.
Even relying on inventory and multiple supplier backups to avoid disruptions caused by a single supplier, we must recognize that the existing aviation supply chain has already been riddled with holes due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Now,叠加 the impact of the tariff war, things naturally don't improve.
Aircraft require not only major components like fuselages, engines, and landing gear but also small items like fasteners. These seemingly insignificant items, due to the tariff war and supply chain difficulties, have significantly extended delivery cycles, severely affecting Boeing's delivery capabilities.
Such highly globalized industries as aviation manufacturing are fragilely dependent on the stability of international political and economic environments. Once conflicts arise between major powers, the once intertwined cooperation chains can break at any moment, with painful consequences.
For a century-old company like Boeing, it has encountered difficult situations before and always managed to overcome them. However, this window of opportunity has given new entrants a great chance. While Chinese airlines suspend imports of Boeing aircraft, COMAC is quietly rising and filling the void left by Boeing. In 2025, COMAC plans to increase the C919 production capacity to 75 aircraft per year to meet future challenges and accelerate delivery speeds.
Of course, production capacity does not equate to output or delivery numbers. The C919 has a long way to go before replacing Boeing, but it holds promise for the future. However, Airbus is different; it is happening now.
In the narrow-body aircraft market, the Airbus A320 series already dominates. With the loss of the Chinese market, the Boeing 737 series will find it even harder to compete, further increasing the A320 series' share of the global order map. In the wide-body aircraft market, Chinese airlines have recently favored models like the Airbus A350, while Boeing's 777X project faces difficulties with certification and lacks orders from China. If the situation cannot be reversed, by around 2030, Airbus might dominate more than half of the global mainline aircraft market, with Boeing compressed to about one-third, and the rest taken by COMAC.
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Original link: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494453900976865843/
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