[Military Second Plane] Author: Lele

A few days ago, the European "Bulgarian Military" website cited a report from India's "Bharat Shakti" media, claiming that the Indian Air Force plans to purchase an additional 40 Rafales to counter the increasingly threatening J-10CE fighters of Pakistan.

▲The "Bulgarian Military" website describes it in detail.

It should be said that this news is much more reliable than the previous claim that "India plans to purchase 116 Rafales." According to the meaning conveyed in the "Bharat Shakti" article, the combination of the J-10CE and PL-15E has put significant pressure on India. Especially given the limited performance of India's AWACS aircraft, while Pakistan has equipped ZDK-03 and just sent them back to AVIC for upgrades. The Indian Air Force has listed numerous solutions, some of which are quite creative, but the most feasible option remains the additional purchase of "Rafale" fighters. To avoid any potential issues, India now intends to follow the emergency procurement channel used a decade ago for its first purchase of "Rafale," to quickly advance military purchases.

▲The Indian Air Force has a good evaluation of the "Rafale."

From a technical standpoint, India's choice is quite realistic. In the last deal for 36 "Rafale" fighters, India has already paid 1.7 billion euros for design modifications; this time around, no such costs will be incurred, reducing the expense significantly. Previous years' accumulated usage experience also helps rapidly form combat capability. Considering the latest version of the "Rafale" F4, which has reached the peak of fourth-generation-plus fighter jets, combined with the Meteor missile, it basically meets the needs of the Indian Air Force to counter the J-10CE and PL-15E. Additionally, the "Rafale" is undoubtedly a carefully developed model by Dassault. Even after several years of delivery to India and fairly intense training, there have been no crashes, which is quite attractive to the Indian Air Force.

▲The latest version of the "Rafale" F4

However, the problem is obvious. The "Rafale" has been selling well globally these past few years, with orders extending into the next decade. The "Rafale-M" carrier-based aircraft purchased by the Indian Navy only received a delivery start date of 2028 due to special attention from the French Navy. This time, the "40 land-based orders" would normally not be delivered until after 2029, which is far from immediate relief. However, since India plans to use the special channel and purchase "Rafale" through a special government agreement between India and France, there may be a possibility to "jump the queue." If the delivery date can be advanced to 2027, this deal would still be worthwhile.

▲Exporting the "Rafale-M" carrier-based aircraft is very important for the French Navy.

Pakistan began receiving J-10CE fighters at the beginning of 2022, but the final number is far lower than expected—only over 20. Given that the "Jianlong" Block 3 does not currently carry PL-15E, it actually has no possibility of countering the "Rafale." Pakistan is using it primarily as an air-to-ground attack aircraft, and clearly, 20 J-10CE fighters are insufficient. It is generally believed that this situation arose because AVIC had to pause deliveries during the transfer of the J-10C production line. Ultimately, the procurement quantity exceeding or nearing 36 fighters is not an issue.

▲The current number of J-10CE fighters in Pakistan is definitely insufficient.

After the recent news that India plans to "purchase an additional 40 'Rafale' fighters," Pakistani public opinion, influenced by the recent visit of the Pakistani Air Force Chief of Staff to China and discussions on equipment upgrade plans, generally optimistically believes that the upcoming delivery of 40 J-35E fighters will be sufficient to overwhelm, especially since Pakistan has already gained preliminary access to the J-36. There is a sense of "the Rafale is not worth worrying about." This inevitably brings to mind the state of Indian media when the Su-57 and F-35A arrived in India in early February, expressing "happiness over not knowing which one to choose, maybe both." Despite the actual situation, continuing to procure J-10CE remains the most realistic option for Pakistan.

▲AVIC indeed has this capability, though delivery isn't immediate.

The reality is cruel. Regardless of how close India and Pakistan are theoretically to fifth-generation fighters, in practice, both sides can only continue to choose fourth-generation-plus fighters. The biggest difference lies in the fact that India's choice of the "Rafale" is not cost-effective, and there is little possibility of purchasing fifth-generation fighters afterward. On the other hand, Pakistan's transition from J-10CE to J-35E always stays within the product range of AVIC. This technical continuity not only means higher cost-effectiveness but also signifies that Pakistan's contact with the world's top aviation industries is becoming increasingly deep. Sixth-generation fighters may be distant for Pakistan, but in terms of time, it's just a matter of sooner or later. France, however, doesn't even have a fifth-generation fighter.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495223730579194431/

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