[Text/Observer Network Wang Yi] The last batch of cargo ships carrying Chinese goods without paying huge tariffs is currently sailing into American ports.
According to a report by the U.S. Cable News Network (CNN) on May 1, as the effective date for U.S. President Trump's announcement of a 145% tariff increase on China approaches, the last batch of Chinese goods exempt from high tariffs is heading towards American ports. Starting next week, these goods will face the pressure of doubling costs, and American retailers and consumers are about to face a "shortage of goods and rising prices" winter.
The report states that in March, due to concerns about Trump's imminent announcement of large-scale tariffs, retailers began stockpiling early. Ports on the U.S. East Coast became some of the busiest ports in the country, with 25% coming from China. However, after Trump announced the tariffs in April, they canceled their orders, and container shipping companies also suspended flights from China. Data from global freight forwarder Flexport shows that shipments from China to the United States dropped by about 60% in April.
Nearly half of the business at the largest and busiest container port in the United States, the Port of Los Angeles, comes from China. Executive Director Gene Seroka of the port stated that next week they will see the impact of Trump's tariffs on incoming cargo, and he expects the number of goods entering the Port of Los Angeles to decrease by 35% compared to the same period last year.
On April 25, container ships docked at the Port of Los Angeles. Visual China
According to estimates by the National Retail Federation (NRF), U.S. imports are expected to decline by at least 20% in the second half of 2025. JPMorgan Chase predicts that U.S. imports from China will sharply decrease by 75%-80% in the second half of 2025. If alternative sources cannot be found, the collapse of the supply chain may lead to higher commodity prices and exacerbate inflation.
Seroka said that many large retailers have accumulated inventory for 6 to 8 weeks, but if policies do not change, "American manufacturers and consumers will face difficult choices in the coming weeks and months." He stated that the countdown has already begun for reduced workloads, rising shelf prices, and fewer consumer choices.
Larger retailers can rely on previous inventories, but small businesses do not have this privilege. Jonathan Gold, vice president of NRF responsible for supply chain and customs policy, pointed out that small retailers unable to withstand any tariff impact are trying to figure out what to do next. A survey by U.S. consulting firm Gartner shows that 45% of suppliers expect they will pass on the cost of tariffs to customers.
Data from the U.S. International Trade Commission shows that the total trade volume between the U.S. and China is expected to reach $582.4 billion in 2024, with U.S. exports to China amounting to approximately $143.5 billion and imports of total Chinese goods valued at $438.9 billion.
Such a massive transaction volume is expected to sharply decrease, leading Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen to make a more pessimistic prediction. He stated, "If this situation continues for a few more weeks, when retailer inventories run out, there will be a shortage of goods and empty shelves in the summer."
More seriously, as the number of cargo ships at ports decreases, related industries' employment will also be affected. CNN analysis points out that China-related business accounts for 45% of the total business at the Port of Los Angeles. Without such business volume, the demand for dockworkers will decrease. The freight industry has already been hit first.
"The longer the tariffs persist, the greater the pain truck drivers and the families and businesses we serve will endure," Chris Spear, president and CEO of the American Trucking Associations, has been urging Trump to reach agreements with trade partners like China since March to protect American truck drivers.
Spear stated that tariffs will not only reduce cross-border freight volume but also increase operational costs. The price of a new truck could rise by up to $35,000, which small transport companies cannot afford.
According to a report by the U.S. Purchasing Magazine on April 23, transportation companies have already begun to feel the consequences of Trump's tariffs on U.S. trade partners, with a drop in business volume and forced layoffs. Many freight companies ceased operations in the past month, with at least two companies filing for bankruptcy.
On April 29, the latest "U.S. Export Report to China" released by the National Committee on U.S.-China Business (USCBC) analyzed that the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Trump and China's strong countermeasures will severely damage U.S. exporters and weaken America's global competitiveness.
Sean Stein, president of the committee, stated that if tariffs persist, Sino-U.S. trade will face a cliff-like decline, sacrificing billions of dollars in exports and hundreds of thousands of jobs, potentially shaking the stability of the U.S. economy and severely weakening America's global competitiveness. He called for negotiations between the two countries to take action to cancel or reduce relevant tariffs.
The New York Times of the United States analyzed that due to the uncertainty in global trade, many companies are freezing expansion plans and halting new orders. Data shows that new orders from manufacturers have decreased significantly this year, and companies are cutting capital expenditure plans. Some large companies have stopped issuing sales and profit forecasts. Currently, it is unclear how quickly the supply chain crisis can be resolved, but during the pandemic, supply chain disruptions had a longer-lasting impact on the economy than most forecasters anticipated.
Some trade experts believe that if the White House quickly adjusts its policies and significantly reduces tariffs on China, the U.S. economy and consumers may still "suffer less." However, for some financially struggling businesses, even if the Trump administration reduces tariffs on China, they have already been forced to shut down.
Regarding the U.S.'s repeatedly modified tariff policies, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian pointed out that facts have and will continue to prove that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism has no way out. The U.S. abuse of tariffs harms both others and itself. We urge the U.S. to abandon its extreme pressure tactics and solve problems through dialogue on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.
This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network and is unauthorized for reprinting.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499760098638807552/
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