Following the outbreak of the current conflict between Israel and Iran, given that senior military and political figures in Iran have been collectively assassinated by Israel's intelligence agency Mossad, and with the sabotage caused by traitors and "guiding parties," even the anti-aircraft missile units have been disrupted, preventing them from countering Israeli air strikes in a timely manner. This has led to a one-sided passive situation where Iran is simply "taking a beating."

▲Bombing of Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel

Therefore, on Chinese internet platforms, a considerable number of netizens and experts believe that, given the general technological gap of over a generation, Iran’s defeat in the face of the terrifying bombing by the Israeli Air Force is almost certain, and this will bring about Iran’s “end.”

▲Iranian Mudstone Ballistic Missile

However, to everyone's surprise, after nearly a day of being incapacitated, Iran quickly regrouped. Not only did it not raise the white flag of surrender, but it also re-established leadership of its command institutions, swiftly rebuilt its command chain, and became increasingly aggressive, launching round after round of missile attacks on Israel's capital, Tel Aviv, as if telling the world: "You may be strong, Israel, but we Iranians are no pushovers either."

01. Iran Has Locked onto Ten U.S. Military Bases

On June 19th, Iran released a heavyweight image identifying ten U.S. military bases in the Middle East. These include Al Asad Airbase in Iraq, Tafif Airbase in UAE, Al Udeid Base in Qatar, and Muwaffaq Salti Base in Jordan.

▲Ten U.S. military bases identified by Iran

It is reported that this move by Iran was in response to the high-frequency activities of U.S. forces in the Middle East. At present, the U.S. has deployed B2 strategic bombers at a location just 4,000 kilometers away from Iran in Spain, giving it the ability to strike Iran's underground nuclear facilities in reality. Additionally, the U.S. has transported large quantities of supplies to Middle Eastern bases via C17 strategic transport aircraft, indicating its readiness to join Israel in taking action.

▲GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator carried by B2 Bomber

Thus, it is not difficult for us to judge that Iran's statement at this time is essentially a warning to U.S. President Trump: if war breaks out between the U.S. and Iran, all the U.S. military bases marked on the map will turn into seas of fire. Once the war starts, there will be no turning back. This spirit of fighting bravely is truly commendable.

02. Why Is the U.S. Suddenly Increasing Its Resolve to Go to War?

In fact, if we had to describe U.S. President Trump with one word, "seemingly fierce but inwardly weak" would be very appropriate. Because Trump himself is a typical isolationist who practices the "America First" strategy, this means that Trump himself does not have a particularly high willingness to intervene in the Middle East situation. On the contrary, he believes that the U.S. has paid significant extra costs to protect these Middle Eastern allies and finds such actions unjustified in terms of benefits.

▲Trump still hesitates about using force against Iran

We can see that throughout Trump's two terms, his greatest performance or achievement in the Middle East issue has been limited to the assassination of Iran's senior general Soleimani and showing no response to Iran's subsequent retaliation, clearly allowing Iran to vent its anger on American bases, thus effectively ending the matter. This is why many scholars and experts are accustomed to calling Trump a seemingly tough "coward."

Returning to the present, the U.S. is facing multiple internal crises. The large amount of maturing U.S. debt is seriously affecting the confidence of the outside world in the dollar; the previous Red Sea anti-air defense interception operation has consumed a large amount of U.S. munitions inventory; China's control over rare earth exports has made it difficult for the U.S. to replenish precision-guided weapons in the short term. With multiple negative factors叠加在一起，用内外交困来形容毫不为过。

也许有人对此感到困惑，既然局势已经糟糕到这个地步了，特朗普为什么还要考虑对伊朗动武呢？

▲F/A-18EF carrier-based fighter-bombers

In fact, the reason behind this is quite simple: in Trump's view, Israel has already caused tremendous damage to Iran through aerial bombing alone, and there have been no reports of any aircraft being shot down in military equipment. These objective realities have given Trump a perception: that Iran has no way to counter advanced U.S. equipment and can only take the hits. Under this background, if negotiations fail, the U.S. could directly use heavy bombs to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities, and Iran would be powerless to retaliate.

Moreover, as an archenemy that the U.S. has been eyeing for decades, if bombing could trigger internal chaos in Iran, overthrow the Iranian regime, and win favor from the Jewish community in the U.S., then just this achievement alone would be enough for Trump's family to enjoy prosperity for generations to come, bringing immense benefits to him and his family.

03. How Will the Situation Develop in the Future?

Conversely, if Iran does not want the U.S. to get involved in this war, it should not release any signals of easing tensions to the U.S., but instead should demonstrate an even more resolute attitude towards war: if the U.S. dares to intervene in the war, Iran has the capability, confidence, and determination to turn all U.S. military bases in the Middle East into seas of fire. The more determined the stance, the less likely it is to provoke U.S. strikes.

▲When the U.S. suspects you have nuclear weapons, it's best if you really do.

Given that most U.S. bases in the Middle East are located within Arab countries, Iran's tough stance also carries an underlying message: to fight against the U.S., Iran doesn't care if relations with other Arab countries deteriorate.

From a practical standpoint, Iran's tough stance has directly transformed the U.S.-Iran博弈 into something akin to the Cold War-era "game of chicken." That is, both sides keep escalating their military moves until one side finally buckles under the pressure and makes concessions, resulting in a lose-lose scenario for both.

Although Israel has imposed extensive information control, some on-site photos and videos have still leaked. Iran's missiles caused significant damage to Israel's capital, leveling the villas of some high-ranking Israeli officials, and even sparked intense arguments in the Israeli parliament, producing additional political effects.

▲Anti-ship ballistic missiles are key weapons for attacking aircraft carriers.

Perhaps it is the spread of these videos that has further disrupted U.S. government decision-making, causing Trump to appear very hesitant. He worries that intervening in the conflict might result in "unacceptable" massive losses for the U.S., forcing the U.S. military to enter Iran and fight a long-term attritional ground war, becoming a second Afghanistan War or a second Vietnam War.

This is something Trump does not want to see, as it would inevitably consume a large amount of America's already limited war resources, not only completely ruining the plan to revitalize manufacturing but also making it even harder to "counter China through strength."

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517998007401611816/

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