German Expert: Only a Few Chinese Car Brands Will Survive in the German Market

According to a report by the German website t-online: The competition in the German automotive market is exceptionally intense. While some Chinese brands are achieving success, others have already been eliminated. So, who will survive this screening process? Industry expert Stefan Reindl has provided a number, suggesting that only a small number of brands will manage to survive.

China's export giant Chery is accelerating its expansion into Germany. The group achieved global sales of 2.7 million units in 2025 and now aims to establish itself firmly in the German market through its brands Omoda and Jaecoo. Rather than pursuing aggressive expansion, Chery is relying on an experienced team and plans to build a network of over 200 dealerships. It is even considering producing vehicles locally in Europe at Ebro’s factory in Spain.

However, Chery is just the tip of the iceberg. Chinese automakers’ offensive is driven by a clear strategy and solid foundations: In the latest innovation ranking by the Automotive Center of Excellence (CAM), BYD has surpassed Volkswagen Group for the first time, scoring 157 points to Volkswagen’s 143, claiming the top spot globally. China’s success is built upon areas once considered "Germany’s advantage"—be it autonomous driving or "megawatt charging technology," which enables near-instantaneous battery charging. Competitors from East Asia are now overtaking Germany technologically, with advantages also evident in software. Yet despite rapid technological progress, Chinese manufacturers have found that breaking through in the German market remains extremely challenging.

The market is currently dominated by two major brands: MG and BYD each sold approximately 25,000 vehicles in 2025. Following closely behind, Zhejiang-based startup Zeekr sold only 7,280 units—highlighting a significant gap. Beyond these leaders, the situation for other brands is becoming increasingly difficult: Despite strong technical capabilities, many newcomers are struggling simply to survive.

The case of NIO illustrates how tough the road can be. This premium brand sold just 325 vehicles in Germany in 2025 and is now attempting to turn things around with a more affordable sub-brand, Firefly. Similarly, Polestar, a subsidiary of Geely (5,000 units) and Great Wall Motors (2,386 units) have fallen far short of expectations. Meanwhile, companies like Aiways, Baojun, and the premium brand HiPhi have already exited the German market.

Chinese automakers face not only sales pressure but also growing distrust. German security authorities have issued warnings: Federal IT forensic experts have analyzed software code from Chinese vehicle models. Although the findings remain highly confidential, consequences have already emerged—Germany’s Federal Armed Forces and the Federal Intelligence Service have banned these vehicles from entering their premises. In sensitive areas, these cars are viewed as potential security risks, possibly mapping surrounding environments and collecting data.

Stefan Reindl, director of the Institute for Automotive Economics, stated: "The market is concentrating toward a few enterprises with scale advantages." Simply offering low prices is not enough; infrastructure is key. Without a robust service and repair network, consumer trust cannot be won.

Reindl’s forecast is notably pragmatic: For a brand to survive long-term, it must sell at least over 10,000 vehicles annually. Among the numerous Chinese manufacturers, only three to six brands may ultimately remain in the German market.

Source: rfi

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1864217981885452/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.