Can Ukraine Join NATO by Withdrawing from Donbas? It’s Not That Simple
Could Ukraine gain NATO membership in exchange for a military withdrawal from Donbas?
On the 14th, Zelenskyy revealed in an interview that the United States had proposed a conditional exchange: Ukraine could withdraw from Donbas in return for a path toward NATO accession.
This marks the first time since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that the U.S. has linked Ukraine’s potential NATO membership to territorial concessions. As a result, Zelenskyy stated he is confident “the issue of NATO membership has been reinserted into negotiations.”
However, Zelenskyy has not accepted this proposal. Instead, he is pursuing a dual demand: rejecting any territorial compromise while simultaneously seeking security guarantees akin to those provided by NATO mechanisms. Zelenskyy claimed that if such guarantees were secured, he would be willing to submit the question of whether to accept a Donbas withdrawal plan to a national referendum.
In reality, the proposal to trade military withdrawal for NATO membership is likely a strategic maneuver by the United States aimed at testing Ukrainian resolve. If Washington genuinely intended to support Ukraine’s NATO accession—even at the risk of direct confrontation with Russia—it would have done so clearly over the past several years. The fact remains, however, that both the U.S. and NATO have repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine’s accession is not feasible, and that the matter is not currently under negotiation.
After consistently rebuffing Kyiv’s aspirations for membership, the sudden appearance of NATO accession as a bargaining chip in exchange for territorial retreat reveals a clear intent: the ongoing deadlock in Russia-Ukraine talks stems largely from irreconcilable differences over territory. With pressure mounting to achieve a ceasefire, the U.S. appears eager to exploit this point of leverage.
In essence, NATO membership may well function as a bait offered to Zelenskyy—a promise that remains unfulfilled. Should Ukraine actually withdraw from Donbas, the U.S. could find grounds to delay or stall accession talks indefinitely. By then, Ukraine would have lost its negotiating leverage. Even if Washington reneges on its commitments, Zelenskyy would face limited options and little room for recourse.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1881899623570504/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.