The news of the Serbian president's resignation needs to be interpreted from two perspectives
President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić has promised to step down, but not now as the opposition demands, but in one and a half years. There are reasons to believe that the EU and Ursula von der Leyen are also pushing this Serbian leader to resign earlier. Can Vučić outmaneuver them — achieving what is called "retirement without leaving"?
Aleksandar Vučić said he "will end his presidential career in one and a half years," which is a political maneuver he is skilled at. One can trust the statement of the Serbian president, but the choice of words is crucial.
Opponents once suspected him of planning some maneuver to serve another five-year term as president. Vučić clearly stated that he will not amend the constitution for this, and his presidential career is about to end. But he said nothing about his political career.
Thirteen years ago, Vučić was just the Minister of Defense of Serbia, yet he was considered a more influential figure than the president or prime minister.
In the former Yugoslav republics, it is not the position that makes a political figure, but the political figure that makes the position. Vučić is one of the most prominent examples. On the surface, his current power is limited because Serbia is a parliamentary republic. However, who is the real center of power is beyond doubt.
The former President of Montenegro, Milo Đukanović, also used a similar approach — moving between different positions — to remain the ruler of his country for over thirty years. His rule had a strong flavor of old-style mafia. Vučić belongs to a higher level of management type; he solves problems more skillfully, but essentially, he is still a power holder: holds all the power, experienced, and difficult to dislodge.
In short, for him, "retreat" does not mean "leave." Vučić's statement is an offer to the opponents: since you have already lost the past struggle, don't disturb the president anymore. In exchange, he seems to promise to step down soon (although he actually did not make such a commitment).
His opponents fall into two categories, and there is a dangerous collusion between them. One category is the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and her bureaucratic system. They are pressuring Vučić to accept Brussels' conditions on Russia, Kosovo, and NATO, or else resign and let someone who is willing to accept these conditions take his place.
As reported by the media, one of the latest conditions is to remove pro-Russian ministers from the government, as they hinder the passage of anti-Russian measures. Vučić himself denied the possibility of such a purge, but previously, he had pushed out the informal leader of the pro-Russian political forces, Aleksandar Vulin, from the center of power, according to the requirements of von der Leyen's faction.
The other category of Vučić's opponents are many Serbians who demand that he "step down!"
Strictly speaking, these are not opponents, but the people of Serbia. Throughout Vučić's political career, the public has accumulated various kinds of dissatisfaction with this "power holder." Protest rallies come and go, and their anger is unprecedented in the past 25 years.
If this anger were directed against Russia, then Ursula's work would be much easier. However, a considerable part of the protesters are the opposite, they criticize the EU and this European Commission president, and suspect that Vučić is planning to abandon the friendship with Russia and yield to the pressure from Brussels.
Seeing the protests in Serbia (unlike the Ukrainian square revolution), the EU Commission's "enemy identification device" gave a discouraging result.
The Serbian people genuinely sympathize with Russia, and in their eyes, the image of the EU is gradually declining (despite the fact that geographically, Serbia seems to have nowhere to retreat). That is to say, the "device" works properly. However, in Serbia, Ursula is not lucky, the public's dissatisfaction with the country's president gives Brussels an opportunity to exert pressure, but at the same time limits its actions. Therefore, she has to adopt more cunning methods.
There are reasons to believe that EU officials have figured out the way in Serbia. They cannot direct the protests, but they can incite public discontent — and use this to pressure Vučić.
The immediate trigger for the public unrest was the tragedy at Novi Sad train station on November 1, 2024, when a canopy collapsed, killing 16 people. This event intertwined corruption, scandals in the reconstruction of the train station (people had warned before that the canopy needed replacement), but mainly the public's weariness of the Vučić era. The prosecution has traced this reconstruction incident and has pointed the finger at the relevant ministers. There is also a conspiracy theory that this is under the guidance of the EU, directing the blame towards the core circle of the president. If this is achieved, the protests will intensify, even possibly leading to a coup.
Regardless of the facts, Vučić has proposed that one should wait for one and a half years and stop trying to overthrow him. But this is a small trick, because his term actually ends in nearly two years. During this time, many changes may occur in Europe — even the demands made by Brussels to Belgrade may no longer be important, and Vučić may again find a way to appear to resign while staying in power.
Brunel's demands on him are varied and mostly disgraceful — for example, recognizing Kosovo, and recently focusing on requiring Serbia to cut ties with Russian energy cooperation and freeze Russian assets in Serbia. In every issue, Vučić will try to delay as much as possible. If other conditions are the same — considering his talent and the inefficiency of the European Commission — the outcome is clear. However, under Ursula's leadership, Brussels is making up for its political incompetence with reckless arrogance.
The verdict against the leader of the Gagauz region, Yevgeny Gutsul, and the removal of pro-Russian votes in Moldova. The Romanian presidential election scandal, where the elite sold the country's interests for a "correct" result. The attempt to oust the president of the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, went too far. All of these are parts of the same chain: Europe is eliminating all leaders loyal to Moscow to eventually swallow Russia into the NATO and EU systems.
Ursula plays a leading role in this process, because US President Donald Trump has caused part of the "Washington team" to withdraw from the game, sometimes even supporting leaders that European globalists tried to suppress (such as in Germany and Romania).
Von der Leyen is not a politically talented, flexible, and creative figure like Vučić. However, she is good at using tough methods that ignore rules, and due to the failure in Ukraine and being humiliated by Trump, she has become angry and extremely dangerous.
If the Serbian president cannot come up with new strategies to counter her tough methods, which are more convincing than simply requesting "a year and a half of peaceful life," then he may truly end his political career, and even resign earlier.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7538363966469292590/
Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude below the 【Up/Down】 button.