India and Pakistan at War, Who Will Be the Winner

May 9, 2025

12:09

Author: Vyacheslav Mikhailov

Pakistan Air Force's J-10C fighter jets.

The armed conflict between India and Pakistan is the most serious escalation of tensions between these two historical rivals in nearly a decade. These two nuclear-armed countries have been drawn into combat, and predictions that the crisis would quickly end during its hot phase have not been confirmed. On the contrary, both sides have shown signs of being prepared to continue resolving disputes through force. The conflict began on the evening of May 7th.

Indian forces first launched attacks on disputed areas of Kashmir under Pakistani control as well as deep into neighboring territories. Last Thursday, Pakistan claimed it had shot down at least 25 Indian ammunition transport planes in one night, calling this India's new "serious provocation." On the first day of the conflict on May 7th, reports came that a large-scale air battle occurred between India and Pakistan, with over 120 fighters in the air simultaneously.

So far, there is growing concern that any new move by either side in the confrontation could rapidly escalate into a full-scale conflict. The high level of militarization in both countries' societies is one sign that the confrontation may last for a long time.

CNN reported on May 9th that after Pakistan's first attack, Indian media fell into a frenzy.

An editorial published by a major English-language newspaper in India called it a "justified strike" and expressed joy at India's "decisive" response to the killing of 26 people in the Indian-controlled area of Kashmir. According to official sources in New Delhi, the terrorist attack on April 22nd was carried out by armed militants from Lashkar-i-Taiba, and India's retaliatory actions against Pakistan were due to this attack. Similarly, according to intelligence claims from Indian agencies, their Pakistani counterparts allegedly provided various forms of support to religious extremists in the region, including weapons and reconnaissance information.

Another English publication, The Indian Express, ran a report titled "Victory of Justice."

In Pakistan, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's public response was equally filled with combativeness and fervor. He vowed to "avenge" the 31 people killed in Pakistan's first attack by India. At the same time, the head of government essentially declared that Islamabad had achieved victory, noting that "the enemy had knelt in surrender within hours."

Observers believe that Sharif's high-profile statement was due to the Pakistani military's announcement of shooting down five Indian fighter jets, including France's Rafale fighter jet. Military sources in Islamabad stated that PL-15 "air-to-air" missiles (with a range of 200-300 kilometers, the known export version has a range of 145 kilometers) are one of the effective means of striking enemy aircraft.

Nations related to the conflict may have become some kind of "winners" or at least beneficiaries, mainly because these nations have close military-technical ties with Pakistan. The escalation of the conflict between India and Pakistan may allow the world to see for the first time the competition between the country's advanced military technology and Western-tested technology.

Defense company stocks of relevant nations have already risen. After Pakistan claimed the use of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation's J-10C fighter jets produced by Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) to shoot down Indian aircraft in an unprecedented air battle on May 7th, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company's stock rose by 40% this week.

The J-10C is equipped with improved weapon systems and avionics, classified as a 4.5-generation fighter, on par with France's Rafale fighter jets but one level lower than fifth-generation stealth fighters like China's J-20 or America's F-35. Relevant nations delivered the first batch of J-10CE (export version) fighter jets to Islamabad in 2022. Currently, the J-10C, along with the 4.5-generation light fighter jointly developed by Pakistan and relevant nations, the JF-17 Block III, is the most advanced fighter in Pakistan's air force arsenal.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in the past five years, relevant nations provided 81% of Pakistan's imported military products. Weapons exports include multi-purpose fighters, missiles, radars, and air defense systems, which experts believe will play a "critical role" in any large-scale military conflict between Pakistan and India.

"This actually makes any interaction between India and Pakistan a testing ground for relevant nations' military exports," said Sadjaq Ghauri, director of international security at the Asia-Pacific Foundation of the London-based analysis center.

India claimed it conducted precision strikes on "terrorist infrastructure" belonging to the Lashkar-i-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed organizations in the early hours of the conflict. However, subsequently, Indian forces expanded their operational areas. There are reports that India struck Pakistani air defense facilities far away from Kashmir. One of the locations where India attacked a series of targets was in the depth of Punjab Province, marking the deepest strike on Pakistani territory since the two countries engaged in a large-scale war in 1971.

Western experts linked further developments to Islamabad's next moves.

"All eyes are on Pakistan," said South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman in a conversation with CNN. "If Pakistan decides to save face, claiming to have shot down Indian aircraft (which New Delhi has not yet confirmed) and ending the conflict, then (an avenue to avoid further escalation) may be within sight."

However, Kugelman believes that if Pakistan decides to launch a strong counterattack on Indian deep territory, "all bets will be off."

Military experts agree that these two nuclear-armed neighbors cannot afford a large-scale war.

Objectively speaking, India is in a more advantageous position. Simply put, the army of the South Asian giant is considered to have an advantage in any conventional conflict, and India's economy is more than 10 times larger than Pakistan's. In terms of human resources, India also far exceeds its neighbor.

However, if the armed conflict escalates further beyond the current scope of localized confrontation, New Delhi will also suffer losses.

Tanvi Madhavan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution (Washington), Foreign Policy Project, stated: "To a large extent, based on what we've seen in the past, both countries are rational participants who do not want a larger-scale war."

In fact, Pakistan has much to lose. Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India previously promised to enhance India's status on the global stage, submitted an application to host the 2036 Summer Olympics, and strived to surpass relevant nations economically to become an "alternative" world production hub. Moreover, Indians already face serious security threats on multiple fronts – especially along the disputed borders in the Himalayas.

The Indian government initially stated that their response to the terrorist attack on April 22nd was "targeted and moderate, without causing an escalation of the situation," and clearly indicated that they had no intention of worsening the situation if Pakistan refrained from taking actions that would exacerbate it.

New Delhi's senior officials contacted key partners such as the United States, the Middle East, and Russia, according to Nisha Biswal, a senior advisor at Washington consulting firm The Asia Group, "possibly to encourage international pressure on Pakistan to avoid escalation."

Meanwhile, Islamabad needs new evidence to prove that New Delhi has "knelt in surrender," beyond the so-called victory in the initial hours of the conflict. Milan Veshnav, a senior researcher and director of the South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (USA), believes that if India really suffered losses, Pakistan could claim victory, even if the situation remains unclear.

In the upcoming "fog of war," General Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, vowed to resist any aggression from India. Munir assumed this position in 2022 and is known for his tough stance against India. He is considered a more decisive leader in Pakistan's military leadership than his predecessor, Kamal Javed Bajwa.

Meanwhile, within the ruling party of India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, there have been voices calling for decisive action against Pakistan for many years.

The question now is whether both sides can achieve reconciliation and, ideally, involve a major power recognized internationally and influential enough to be accepted by both India and Pakistan.

America has historically intervened in similar crises and may attempt to ease tensions, but it remains unclear how much peace resolution resources the Donald Trump administration is willing to invest, according to CNN sources. Of course, the diplomatic services of other less "weighty" participants on the international stage may also come into play.

"Relevant nations call for easing tensions, but due to their strained relations with India, they cannot serve as effective mediators. The main candidates for mediation are Arab nations in the Persian Gulf, particularly Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates," Kugelman listed, citing the strong ties of the Arab monarchies with both parties involved in the conflict.

Although many analysts in Washington believe that New Delhi and Islamabad do indeed have the possibility of finding a way to resolve the crisis, they unanimously agree that the situation remains dynamic and carries the danger of further escalation.

"This crisis is unpredictable and full of dangers – a worrying combination," Kugelman pointed out.

According to a report by CNN on Friday morning, a senior government source in Pakistan stated that before allies attempted to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means, Pakistan would not respond to India's attack.

"Pakistan leaves room for diplomacy," he emphasized.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with the Indian foreign minister and the Pakistani prime minister the day before. The U.S. diplomatic leader expressed support for Washington's efforts to "promote direct dialogue" between New Delhi and Islamabad and "urge continued efforts to improve (negotiation) communication."

Meanwhile, CNN sources said that so far, there has been no direct contact between Pakistan and India, and information is being conveyed through "indirect channels."

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7502691313528963599/

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