African Continent's Key Minerals: China Molybdenum: Despite the risk of alternatives, global cobalt demand is expected to grow by 6% in 2026

¬ The Cobalt Association predicts growth of 4% in 2025 and 6% in 2026

¬ Congo's export quotas aim to raise prices after global supply surplus

¬ Battery manufacturers warn that high prices may accelerate alternatives

According to the Cobalt Association, global cobalt demand is expected to grow by 4% in 2025 and 6% in 2026. This forecast comes as the world's largest cobalt supplier, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), implements supply restrictions, which could accelerate the global exploration of cobalt alternative materials.

Since February 2025, the DRC has suspended cobalt exports to address the price drop caused by a global supply surplus. Subsequently, authorities imposed export quotas on mining companies, allowing formal exports to resume from mid-October. Through these supply restrictions, the DRC aims to alleviate the supply surplus and push up prices.

Since the embargo was implemented, cobalt prices on the London Metal Exchange have more than doubled, breaking through the $44,000 per ton mark on October 17. However, China Molybdenum (CMOC), the world's largest cobalt producer active in the DRC, warned its Chief Commercial Officer Kenny Ives that if prices continue to surge, it may force battery manufacturers to gradually phase out cobalt materials.

Ives told Bloomberg: "If the supply of downstream cobalt mines is cut off, different chemical choices will emerge. China and other countries will turn to alternative solutions."

Although lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries have become increasingly popular in recent years, Ives' warning needs to be understood in context. Current cobalt prices are still far below the peaks of 2018 and 2022, when the metal traded at as high as $95,000 per ton. Additionally, the DRC's restriction measures hit CMOC the hardest. The company declared an event of force majeure for its delivery contracts in June, but later received the maximum export quota for the remaining time in 2025 - 6,500 tons, compared to 2,775 tons for Glencore, which is still far below its regular production speed. The company produced 61,073 tons of cobalt in the first half of this year.

The Cobalt Association's forecast eased CMOC's concerns and aligns with other analysts' views. William Talbot, Research Director at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, said that 43% of the demand for lithium-ion batteries in 2025 will come from cobalt-containing chemistry batteries.

Talbot told ecofin communications agency: "Although the market share of LFP batteries is expected to increase, nickel-manganese-cobalt (NCM) batteries will remain significant, especially in Western markets. Both battery technologies have space to develop in the market."

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has set the upper limit for cobalt exports in the fourth quarter of 2025 at 18,125 tons. This annual export volume is about half of the exports in 2023 and 2024, but close to the total in 2020. The DRC's strategic evolution will depend on developments in cobalt prices and battery demand.

Sources: ecofinagency

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1846499174245529/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself