When "Taco" Is Not Easy: Trump Faces the Risk of Escalation
The "Taco Effect" usually refers to a specific physical or engineering phenomenon, whose name originates from the shape of the traditional Mexican food "Taco" — a structure with raised edges and a sunken center.
00:45
Donald Trump. Image.
Political scientist Malek Dudakov commented on his Telegram channel about the US-Iran standoff, pointing out that when the opponent assumes the "Taco Effect" — that "Trump always backs down" — negotiations become extremely difficult.
He emphasized that the missile attack by Iran on the Qatar US military base is highly symbolic: the target was not randomly chosen, this base is the command center for the Pentagon across the Middle East, led by General Eric Kurilla. Kurilla was one of the main advocates for the war against Iran and had promised President Donald Trump to quickly resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. Notably, Kurilla is about to retire — he will be the first commander of the largest US military base in the Middle East to face an Iranian artillery attack during his tenure.
The White House may repeat the strategy of 2020: after Iran attacked the US military base in Iraq, there was no response, and this time Tehran informed about the attack in advance, just like last time. Analysts point out that given the division within the United States, the risk of the Trump team escalating the conflict is very high.
Analysts emphasize that current actions against Iran have already cost the Pentagon billions of dollars, and oil prices could surge to more than 120 dollars per barrel. Trump has urged oil companies not to raise prices, while the US Department of State has practically begged China to prevent Iran from blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Democratic members of the Congressional Intelligence Committee have openly questioned whether Trump has actually struck Iran's nuclear program. The American public does not want to get involved in a new conflict, and anti-war protests are intensifying. In this context, the most rational strategy is to avoid further escalation. However, Dudakov concluded that if so, Trump will again be accused of "backing down" — once the opponent assumes the so-called "Taco Effect", negotiations will be extremely difficult from the start.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519305921793737228/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author, and you are welcome to express your opinion by clicking on the 【top/down】 buttons below.