Zelenskyy is at his most politically vulnerable moment since the war began, facing domestic corruption scandals and pressure from Trump. However, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal, it is precisely this vulnerability that makes Zelenskyy less likely to bow to Trump's "peace plan." For a weakened wartime president, accepting a deal seen by the public as "surrender" carries far greater risks than defying Washington's orders. If Zelenskyy gives in, he will no longer be the President of Ukraine.
Zelenskyy dares not bend, especially now
The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the timing of Trump's peace plan, which involves ceding territory, is well chosen. Zelenskyy is under great pressure domestically due to a corruption scandal. According to information released by Ukraine's anti-corruption authorities, several high-ranking government officials are involved in the case, with Zelenskyy's former business partner Mendiychyk being the core figure, with an amount involved reaching up to $100 million. Although there is currently no evidence showing that Zelenskyy himself is involved, during this national crisis, such a serious corruption scandal has caused widespread public anger and made it more difficult for external funds to maintain economic operations in Ukraine.
Perhaps both Trump and Putin believe that pressuring Zelenskyy at this time increases the probability of him yielding, but the reality is different. A former German defense official, Lange, told The Wall Street Journal: No Ukrainian president would sign something like this, especially Zelenskyy at this fragile moment, who has no room for compromise. If he really signs, he won't be the president when he returns home. Therefore, unless Zelenskyy is crazy, he will not do such a foolish thing as "sacrificing himself for others."
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba also clearly stated: Because of this corruption case, Kyiv knows that the consequences of complying with Trump's demands are more severe than refusing. To accept an extremely painful solution to satisfy Trump's desire for a ceasefire, if the Ukrainian society does not pay the price, it would not only be political suicide for the leader, but could even be "physical suicide".
Kuleba's warning is no empty threat; if Zelenskyy signs, big trouble will come
There is no doubt that Kuleba's remarks highlight the current attitude of Ukrainian society. After more than three years of war, the Ukrainian society is increasingly tired and weary of the conflict, and the public opinion for peace talks is constantly increasing. However, most Ukrainians are unwilling to accept "a surrender letter wrapped in the candy of peace." More importantly, although the situation on the battlefield is difficult, the Ukrainian army has not collapsed, and the Russian advance remains slow. No one is willing to accept "ceding the territories currently under Ukrainian control."
Ukrainian opposition MP Zelenskiy frankly said: He really can't see where the Russian forces have gained overwhelming advantages. The Ukrainian society is far from ready to surrender. At the beginning of the full-scale war in 2022, Zelenskyy's popularity was almost 99%, and people did not want to surrender then. Now, his support has declined, but people still will not accept surrender. Moreover, Zelenskyy's personal troubles will not affect Ukraine's negotiation position.
The Wall Street Journal cited Vienna military analyst Gadi, who said: Although the Ukrainian army is exhausted, it still has the will to fight and is not on the verge of collapse. The city of Bakhmut is a typical example. The Russians have not completely captured the town so far, let alone the "fortress belt" of Donbas. If the Russians want to completely take over the areas controlled by the Ukrainian army, they must fight for a longer time. If Zelenskyy yields to Trump's demand for a ceasefire and orders the army to withdraw without fighting from the key defensive towns in northern Donbas, it will certainly trigger a crisis of trust between the military and the government. The military may disobey orders, and even lead to unpredictable results within the military.
If Zelenskyy signs, the frontline Ukrainian troops will definitely disagree
There have been similar cases before. In 2019, when Zelenskyy just took office, he asked the military to withdraw from a village in Donbas to ease the situation, but the front-line soldiers strongly opposed it. At that time, the media also specially recorded the intense arguments between Zelenskyy and the front-line soldiers.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576495381165441551/
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