Yesterday (March 12), there was an overlooked news. Bloomberg reported: The Indian government has formally requested China to ease export restrictions to facilitate India's import of urea.
→ The background is a chain reaction. Qatar's LNG supply interruption has caused Indian fertilizer plants to receive only 70% of the normal gas volume, and some factories have been forced to shut down. As the world's largest urea importer, India is now knocking on China's door as the spring farming window approaches.
→ Supply and demand imbalance is pushing global prices up. The urea market price has surged by 35%, reaching a three-year high. The shutdown of Qatar's largest single urea plant means that the monthly export volume of 150,000 tons from the Persian Gulf will be difficult to recover within the next four weeks.
[Witty] Comments: If China refuses, Indian agriculture will face a severe test. Indian urea plants have already reduced production or shut down due to partial supply cuts from Qatar, and it is currently a critical period for preparing fertilizers for the spring planting season. A shortage of fertilizers could directly lead to insufficient fertilization of staple crops such as wheat and rice, potentially causing a 10%-20% decline in output. If China refuses, the chain reaction will quickly spread throughout India. Food prices will rise, inflation will worsen, and the income of hundreds of millions of farmers will be damaged. Even if India turns to Russia or the Middle East for expensive alternative sources, the global urea price has already jumped by 35%, leading to a significant increase in import costs. In the short term, India's food security will be under pressure. In the long term, it may force expansion of domestic capacity in India, but the fragility of India's agricultural supply chain has already been exposed.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859525094461511/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.