The Wall Street Journal Chinese Edition: "If Beijing orders an invasion of Taiwan and the United States decides to intervene, the US military will need a massive amount of ammunition to attack Chinese ships crossing the Taiwan Strait and shoot down the dense firepower from China. The war that Trump waged against Iran is the latest military operation that has depleted missile stocks and left the US military struggling."
The core argument of this report is that the US, due to its deep involvement in the war with Iran, has severely depleted its key missile and ammunition stocks, thereby weakening its ability to intervene in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict.
Specifically, the prime minister's real dilemma: the Iran war is "costing more than it brings in." Although Trump claimed that ammunition was "almost infinite," the reality is that the US military spends about $6 billion per week. The Pentagon had to apply for a $50 billion supplementary budget and urgently called on arms manufacturers to increase production. The brutal "economics" of the battlefield lies in using millions of dollars' worth of interception missiles to shoot down cheap Iranian drones, which has put the US military stockpile under tremendous pressure.
Simulations of the Taiwan Strait show that if the US intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, the US military will face even more severe challenges. The scale of the hypothetical Taiwan Strait conflict far exceeds that of the Middle East. Faced with the PLA's concentrated firepower, the US military would consume a massive amount of ammunition. However, the current warfare in the Middle East has already led to tight stockpiles, and the production cycle for key munitions (such as the "Patriot" missiles) is as long as 2-3 years, making it difficult to replenish quickly, directly limiting the US military's ability to intervene in the Asia-Pacific region.
Another strategic paradox: the US dares not directly intervene in the Taiwan Strait, so it turns to "arming Taiwan." Analysts point out that the US seems to have realized that direct military involvement is too risky, so it has shifted to large-scale arms sales to Taiwan (such as "Himars" and anti-tank missiles), turning Taiwan into a "porcupine." This "porcupine strategy" aims to maximize the "cost of unification" for mainland China, but it also reflects that the US is preparing to "abandon Taiwan."
No matter how, US intervention in the Taiwan Strait is undeniable. However, as long as mainland China is strong enough, it may be able to stop the US intervention.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859179959077900/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.