【Text by Observers Network, Liu Bai】Regarding Mexico's plan to impose a 50% tariff on goods from China and other countries, China launched a trade investigation against Mexico at the end of last month, with analysts pointing out that this is a warning to Mexico.
Recently, several members of Mexico's ruling party, the National Regeneration Movement, revealed that the Mexican parliament has "suspended" the progress of the tariff proposal. On October 9, President Sheinbaum stated that Mexico plans to first negotiate with China and other countries regarding the potential increase in tariffs before proceeding with the legislative process.
According to Reuters, Sheinbaum submitted the draft for increasing tariffs to the House of Representatives in early September. Her National Regeneration Movement party holds an absolute majority of seats. The proposal aims to impose a maximum of 50% tariffs on cars, textiles, clothing, plastics, steel, and other products. Many analysts believe that this move is intended to appease U.S. President Trump.
It has been noted that since the proposal was announced, as the second-largest trading partner of Mexico after the United States, China has criticized the proposal, stating that it will harm investor confidence. China also issued a warning to Mexico, indicating that it will take "necessary measures" to protect its "legitimate rights and interests."
On October 7, Sheinbaum held a press conference. Visual China
On September 9, Sheinbaum said during a routine press conference that the current government is analyzing the potential adjustment directions of the tariff proposal.
"We are holding talks with multiple countries to explore whether we can adjust the proposal that is scheduled to be submitted to the parliament and approved this year," she said.
The day before she made the above remarks, Ricardo Monreal, the leader of the National Regeneration Movement in the Mexican House of Representatives, had told reporters that the parliament currently "suspended" the advancement of the proposal, planning to restart the relevant review work in late November.
Monreal said, "We are very seriously reviewing this proposal."
Several unnamed lawmakers from the National Regeneration Movement also told Reuters that the current version of the tariff proposal cannot be approved by the parliament, and the plan is likely to need to be reduced in intensity, i.e., reduce the tariff increases or narrow the scope. However, it is still unclear about the specific modification direction.
Any adjustments may create a gap in Mexico's 2026 government budget, because the Mexican Ministry of Finance previously predicted that the proposed tariff increase would generate $3.76 billion for the country.
The tariff proposal will affect products imported from "non-trade agreement partner countries," including China, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand, and Turkey.
According to the current draft of the tariff proposal, the import tariff on light vehicles will be increased from the current 15%-20% to 50%, while the import tariff on car parts will be increased from the current 0-35% to 10%-50%.
Some analysts estimate that the increase in car tariffs will mainly affect electric vehicles manufactured in China and sold in Mexico, with BYD and Tesla being the most severely affected.
Sheinbaum's government stated that the tariff increase is a means to protect Mexico's domestic industry, but the background also includes pressure from the United States for Mexico to reduce commercial exchanges with China.
A senior official from the National Regeneration Movement who did not want to be named said that the approval process of the tariff proposal has been postponed due to concerns that the tariff increase may raise consumer prices and damage domestic Mexican companies.
The official also revealed that in the long term, they believe Mexico is moving towards a direction where it will push the United States, Canada, and Mexico to impose unified tariff standards on China.
On September 12, Sheinbaum stated that Mexican officials will hold talks with Chinese representatives regarding Mexico's planned tariff increase and emphasized that the tariff increase is not a "coercive measure."
"We have a very good relationship with China, and we hope to continue maintaining a good relationship with them," she added, saying that the new tariff measures target industries that need to enhance domestic production.
This year, Mexico has been under continuous pressure from the Trump administration to limit Chinese imports, worried that Mexico could become a "backdoor" for Chinese goods entering the U.S. market.
In July this year, Trump also threatened to increase tariffs on Mexican goods to 30%, and then announced a 90-day suspension of the measure, which will expire at the end of October.
Many opinions suggest that Mexico's recent tax increase is seen as a response to U.S. pressure, aimed at appeasing the Trump administration's trade threats. The latter has recently been continuously urging Mexico to follow the U.S. example and impose tariffs on Chinese imports.
China's countermeasures came quickly.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce decided to initiate an anti-dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the United States starting from September 25, 2025, and the investigation is expected to last one year.
On the same day, China issued a notice to conduct a trade and investment barrier investigation on related measures taken by Mexico against China. Analysts believe that according to the investigation results, China may promote bilateral negotiations, or escalate the case to multilateral dispute resolution mechanisms, including the World Trade Organization.
Xu Shicheng, a researcher at the Latin American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "Initiating an anti-dumping investigation on certain products from Mexico is timely, sending a clear warning to Mexico."
"Mexico's actions were clearly taken under U.S. pressure, attempting to please the U.S. while ignoring the interests of its second-largest trading partner, China," said Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He pointed out that these two parallel investigations are a typical strategy for China to respond to trade tensions.
"First, China will not force third-party countries to take sides, but will retaliate against countries that openly support the U.S. at the expense of China's interests," he said, "Secondly, China always takes responsive actions and does not act first."
The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce of China stated that China believes that in the current context of the U.S. imposing tariffs indiscriminately, all countries should jointly oppose various forms of unilateralism and protectionism, and must not sacrifice the interests of third parties due to others' coercion. If Mexico's unilateral tariff increase is implemented, even within the WTO framework, it will harm the interests of trade partners such as China, and will significantly affect the certainty of the business environment in Mexico, reducing the confidence of enterprises in investing in Mexico. China firmly opposes this.
To resolutely safeguard the interests of China's relevant industries, the Ministry of Commerce has decided to initiate a trade and investment barrier investigation on the restrictions measures that Mexico has proposed to increase import tariffs on Chinese goods, in accordance with the provisions of the Foreign Trade Law and the Rules for Foreign Trade Barrier Investigations.
This investigation will adhere to the principles of fairness, impartiality, and transparency. It welcomes the participation of all interested parties, including domestic industries and enterprises in China, affected by Mexico's measures. The Ministry of Commerce will make objective and fair decisions based on the investigation results, and will take necessary measures according to actual circumstances to resolutely safeguard its legitimate and proper rights and interests.
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