[By Guancha Observer, Shao Yun]
The "two-week negotiation deadline" set by U.S. President Trump for deciding whether to take military action ultimately changed within two days. Whether the "two-week negotiation deadline" was from the beginning a smokescreen to relax Iran's vigilance, or whether the real negotiations between the U.S. and Iran broke down after Trump issued an ultimatum, or if there were other hidden circumstances, remains a subject of much debate.
According to The Wall Street Journal's report on June 22, Trump approved the plan to strike Iran late at night on the 16th after returning from the G7 summit in Canada, and hosted a meeting in the White House Situation Room on the 17th. However, he did not issue the final command, choosing instead to observe whether Iran would completely stop uranium enrichment activities.
"There was indeed a serious debate earlier this week," said a senior official in the Trump administration. "But Trump's stance during Tuesday's (17th) meeting already leaned toward moving forward, which changed everything." The official added, "The goal is to create a situation that no one expected."
It is reported that before Trump officially approved the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities on the afternoon of the 21st, the White House had been internally discussing it for several weeks, with the military also meticulously planning and directly coordinating with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, over the past week, Trump himself seemed indecisive about whether to execute the action. His advisors also worried that the U.S. itself could be drawn into the Middle East conflict.
Local time on June 21, 2025, Washington D.C., the White House released photos through X platform showing Trump in the White House Situation Room. Visual China.
However, the report said that due to Iran's "continued refusal" to meet Trump's demand to abandon uranium enrichment activities, and because Trump appeared very satisfied with Israel's recent strikes against Iran, he finally decided to proceed with the action.
The Atlantic magazine also quoted an ally who discussed this decision with Trump, saying that Trump chose to launch airstrikes on Iran because he was deeply impressed by the "success" of Israel's air strikes. Trump began to believe that "as long as we push a little harder, we can achieve great results."
On the 20th local time, Trump explained to the media that two weeks was the "longest" deadline he gave Iran to avoid U.S. military strikes, suggesting that he might decide whether to strike Iran within less than two weeks. The previous day, White House Secretary Levitt said that Trump would decide within the next two weeks whether to order the U.S. military to strike Iran.
Axios News Network reported on the 21st that it emphasized the image of the Trump administration being "forced to act": citing three U.S. officials and a person with knowledge, it said that Trump and Turkish President Erdogan sought to arrange high-level meetings between U.S. and Iranian officials this week, but this effort ultimately failed due to Supreme Leader Khamenei's "disappearance."
It is reported that during the G7 summit on the 16th, Trump received a call from Erdogan, who proposed holding a high-level meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials the next day in Istanbul to discuss diplomatic solutions to the conflict between Iran and Israel. Trump agreed. Although there were discussions about Trump attending personally, reportedly, a more serious proposal involved Vice President Vance and Middle East Envoy Whitaker attending the meeting.
However, the report said that when Turkey conveyed this proposal to Iran, President Pezeshkyan and Foreign Minister Zarif tried to contact Khamenei for approval. Due to concerns of possible assassination by Israel, Khamenei went into hiding and could not be reached. After several hours, Iran informed Turkey that they had failed to obtain Khamenei's approval. Turkey then informed the U.S., canceling the planned meeting.
Axios News Network said that this "new detail" revealed indicates that Trump had "strongly pushed" for direct talks with Iran. In the days following the failure of the U.S.-Iran meeting plan, Trump and senior White House officials increasingly believed that diplomatic channels held no hope and became more convinced that the U.S. must intervene in the conflict to completely eliminate Iran's nuclear program.
As for why Trump judged that Iran was uninterested in resolving the conflict diplomatically, the Daily Mail said on the 22nd that it was because two key people in his inner circle - CIA Director Ratcliffe and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kayne - had recently been reporting to Trump that according to U.S. intelligence, Iran was only "weeks away" from building a nuclear weapon and strongly demonstrated to Trump the success rate of U.S. airstrikes.
In addition, according to the Daily Mail, another factor prompting Trump to approve airstrikes on Iran earlier was the weather - it is reported that Iran entered the waning moon phase after full moon, with low visibility at night, which is conducive to the stealth flight of U.S. B-2 bombers.
However, even American media cannot understand why Trump was so confident that Iran was close to building a nuclear weapon. The Atlantic pointed out that in fact, U.S. intelligence agencies had publicly assessed for many years that Iran was not attempting to build nuclear weapons and believed that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons development program as early as 2003.
The report said that although U.S. intelligence considered Iran's ongoing uranium enrichment activities to have potential weapons purposes and that the amount of highly enriched uranium stockpiled far exceeded civilian energy needs, uranium enrichment was just one part of the process of making a nuclear weapon; a real nuclear warhead must also be able to be installed on a ballistic missile and successfully hit the target after re-entering the atmosphere - a challenging engineering task.
Just last March, National Intelligence Director Gabard reiterated this basic judgment during a congressional hearing. But on the 20th of this month, just a few days after Trump approved the strike on Iran, Trump criticized Gabard's judgment as "wrong." Gabard, who had previously insisted that he shared Trump's views, responded on social media the same day, saying that his statement at the congressional hearing in March had been "taken out of context" by the media.
Local time on March 25, 2025, Washington D.C., Gabard testified at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on "global threats" on Capitol Hill. Visual China.
The New York Times reported that Trump ordering airstrikes on Iran was a "gamble," betting that the U.S. could handle Iran's subsequent retaliatory attacks on over 40,000 U.S. troops in the region and ensure that the U.S. had ended Iran's ability to further advance its nuclear program. "This will be a dangerous gamble."
Trump's administration's "gamble" has drawn criticism both domestically in the U.S. and within the Republican Party. Minority Leader of the House and Democrat Hakeem Jeffries said that the Trump administration's military attack was unauthorized by Congress and placed the U.S. at risk of a catastrophic Middle Eastern war. Republican Representative Thomas Macy criticized Trump's order to bomb Iran as unconstitutional. Republican strategist Sarah Longwell said that an American airstrike on Iran would be seen by most of Trump's supporters as an "unforgivable sin."
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif posted on social media on the 22nd, saying that the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was "outrageous" and would have "lasting consequences," and that Iran reserved all options to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people's security. UN Secretary-General Guterres issued a statement pointing out that the U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities was a "dangerous escalation" of regional tensions and posed a "direct threat" to international peace and security.
This article is an exclusive contribution by the Guancha Observer and cannot be reproduced without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518779188733411850/
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