According to a report by the Mint on October 22, India and the US are about to reach a trade agreement, with the US possibly significantly reducing tariffs on Indian imports. It is reported that the two countries have basically finalized the framework of the agreement and are advancing negotiations in various fields, with the possibility of reducing the 50% tariff to 15%-16%. In terms of energy, the US is expected to make certain concessions, while India is considering increasing ethanol imports and gradually reducing oil procurement from Russia. Currently, India imports approximately $12–13 billion worth of crude oil and natural gas from the US annually, and there is still potential for further growth. Additionally, as the discount on Russian oil is gradually narrowing, India saved only about $3.8 billion in procurement costs during the fiscal year 2024-25. If the US offers more competitive pricing, India may increase its imports of related products from the US. According to sources, Indian senior officials have visited Russia and conveyed these intentions, and in the future, they may guide state-owned oil companies to shift to alternative sources such as the US through informal channels. In agriculture, India may allow more US non-genetically modified corn and soybean meal to enter the domestic market and promote the establishment of a dynamic review mechanism for tariffs and market access. However, both sides have not yet reached a consensus on tariff reductions for dairy products. Some Indian agricultural experts are concerned about expanding soybean meal imports, as it could depress domestic prices, impact the local processing industry, and further reduce the enthusiasm for soybean cultivation. Analysts point out that the China-US trade war has prompted the US to accelerate the restructuring of its supply chain, thereby speeding up the negotiation of the India-US trade agreement. The final agreement is expected to be jointly finalized by Trump and Modi at the ASEAN Summit at the end of October. Additionally, Indian experts pointed out that India needs to maintain red lines in sensitive areas such as agriculture, digital trade, e-commerce, and intellectual property rights, to avoid signing clauses that might limit its strategic autonomy in order to cater to the US's "anti-China" objectives.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1846727175776320/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.