Trump Makes Tough Threats, Iran Fires Missiles in Retaliation — Is U.S.-Iran Negotiation Headed for Collapse?

Due to the dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated into armed clashes once again.

On the 27th, the U.S. Central Command announced that in response to Iran's attack on an oil tanker flying the Panamanian flag, the U.S. launched airstrikes targeting multiple Iranian facilities, including surveillance systems, communication networks, and air defense positions.

At the same time, Trump also issued a stern warning against Iran on social media, stating that Iran should not push the U.S. too far, saying, “If the U.S. loses its mind, Iran will cease to exist.”

However, Iran did not directly respond to Trump’s intimidation. Instead, it continued launching missiles and drones toward U.S. military bases located in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other countries.

Currently, this round of U.S.-Iran clashes shows clear signs of escalation. Thus, the pressing question is: as the intensity of attacks increases on both sides, will this undermine ongoing negotiations?

Such a possibility certainly exists. Fundamentally, the core issue behind this latest U.S.-Iran conflict lies in control of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran seeks to establish its own management rules within the strait, which clearly challenges U.S. hegemony; meanwhile, the U.S. not only refuses to accept this, but also aims to use airstrikes to demonstrate its ability to veto Iran’s claims.

Yet, if negotiations were to collapse, the consequences would be serious for both sides.

For the United States, if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz again, current U.S. military capabilities lack the cost-effective means to reopen the passage. Should the strait become blocked, global oil prices would inevitably surge, severely damaging Trump’s political prospects and the Republican Party’s performance in the upcoming midterm elections.

For Iran, a failed negotiation would mean the end of hopes for the return of frozen assets, the lifting of sanctions, and the $30 billion reconstruction fund — although Iran has endured decades of U.S. sanctions and possesses considerable resilience, given the opportunity to escape hardship, no one wants to revert to past suffering.

Therefore, at present, both the U.S. and Iran are essentially walking a tightrope.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869231924919363/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.