American soybean farmers are struggling! "No market can match China's demand for soybeans"

The UK's Guardian noted on August 16 that as the soybean harvest season approaches this year, American soybean farmers are facing unprecedented challenges — climate disasters, soaring costs, and international demand stagnation caused by the U.S. government's tariff policies, creating a "perfect storm."

Among these, the absence of the Chinese market has placed an unbearable pressure on American soybean farmers. Virginia Houston, head of government affairs at the American Soybean Association, complained on behalf of American soybean farmers, saying, "No market can match China's demand for soybeans."

Soybeans are one of the most important crops in the United States, occupying a core position in U.S. agricultural exports. And China is the main buyer of U.S. soybeans. According to China Customs data, in 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, of which 22.13 million tons were imported from the United States. In comparison, Mexico, the second-largest market for U.S. soybeans, purchased less than 6 million tons, far behind the Chinese market in scale.

However, since 2017, when the first Trump administration imposed tariffs on China, China gradually reduced its purchases of U.S. soybeans, causing heavy losses to American farmers. Karen Braun, chief market analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, an American broker specializing in agricultural risk management, pointed out in a report in early August that as of July 24, U.S. exporters had sold only 3 million tons of soybeans, with exports reaching a 20-year low.

Meanwhile, Brazilian consulting firm Safras & Mercado stated that China has already locked in about 8 million tons of soybean supply for September and about 4 million tons for October, which accounts for almost half of China's estimated demand for these two months. These supplies all come from South America, mainly Brazil. Hong Kong's South China Morning Post pointed out on August 15 that this move directly compressed the traditional U.S. export "golden window" from September to next January.

"Under the existence of tariffs, we are not competitive compared to soybeans from Brazil," said Houston. According to convention, the U.S. soybean market starts selling from October 1st each year, and China should have already placed some orders by now. However, U.S. tariffs forced China to take countermeasures, and China has "not purchased a single shipment of U.S. soybeans so far this year."

This will be a huge blow to American soybean farmers. Houston said, "No market can match China's demand for soybeans."

Outside of export difficulties, American soybean farmers are also suffering from the impact of the climate crisis. The Guardian reported that continuous rainfall this year has led to serious pests and diseases in the fields, hindering the growth of U.S. soybeans and corn. Brian Harbage, a seventh-generation farmer in Ohio, told the newspaper that they only completed planting in early June this year, half a month later than usual, which means insufficient maturity time, and it was sown under unfavorable conditions.

The report said that cornfields in Indiana, Ohio, and other areas are hit by daily heavy rain, leading to waterlogging in the fields, killing seedlings, followed by outbreaks of northern leaf blight, gray leaf spot, and brown spot diseases. Even after spraying fungicides, the high temperature and humidity environment still made it difficult for crops to recover. To reduce moisture content at harvest, farmers like Harbage had to invest additional funds to purchase propane to dry the corn.

Harbage said that if Trump walked into his farm today, he would convey a message that "export is number one, and it is the primary solution."

"China, Mexico, and Canada, we export $83 billion worth of goods to them every year," Harbage said. "Therefore, if they don't buy, we will be stuck with our crops."

On the price front, the U.S. agricultural market has also remained sluggish. The Guardian pointed out that factors such as reduced cattle herds and decreased ethanol production have caused the prices of major U.S. agricultural products to decline over the past three years, while the costs of seeds, fertilizers, land, and machinery continue to rise. Houston believes that the economic situation of U.S. agriculture is more difficult than during the trade war period of Trump's previous term in 2018.

However, the Trump administration has not truly responded to the farmers' calls. Houston said that when she spoke with the White House and the U.S. Congress about the difficulties farmers face due to tariffs, the response was "they support farmers, but we are just a gear in this complex relationship."

Trump's solution is to make empty demands on social media, urging China to buy more U.S. soybeans. On August 10, he posted on his own social media platform "Truth Social" claiming that China is now "worried about a soybean shortage," and he hopes China "quickly increases (U.S.) soybean orders fourfold," and promised to provide "fast service" for China.

However, the South China Morning Post believes that although this statement briefly pushed up Chicago futures prices, market observers question whether such transactions are realistic, as it would force China to abandon its established supply system in Brazil.

Cooperation between China and Brazil in the agricultural sector is deepening. The Brazilian Soybean Producers Association stated in a statement on the 11th that strong sales in September and October may become an opportunity to further consolidate Brazil's position as China's main supplier.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1840713662141452/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.